As the international community closely monitors the situation, this development will undoubtedly draw further attention. It adds another layer of complexity to an already volatile and unstable region. The deployment of troops or security personnel to a country experiencing ethnic violence and conflict is a complex and risky endeavour. India's historical involvement in Sri Lanka during the Tamil Tiger insurgency serves as a cautionary tale. Despite the intention to help, India's military intervention resulted in significant casualties and ultimately failed to achieve its objectives.

Given this context, China's decision to deploy security forces to Myanmar, a country largely controlled by rebel groups, is highly concerning. Such a move could further escalate tensions and potentially lead to unintended consequences. While many countries have invested in infrastructure and businesses in Myanmar, the 2021 coup has led to a significant withdrawal of foreign investment. Many companies have ceased operations and closed down their businesses due to the deteriorating political and security situation.

China, as a close neighbour with substantial investments in Myanmar, is particularly concerned about the impact of the conflict on its interests. The inability to conduct business and contain the damage to infrastructure projects have forced China to consider alternative solutions, including the deployment of private security forces. However, if other countries with significant investments in Myanmar, such as Japan, South Korea, Russia, or the United States, follow suit and deploy their own private security personnel, it could escalate tensions and create a more volatile environment. This scenario has the potential to exacerbate the conflict and lead to a dangerous situation.

For instance, India has substantial investments in Myanmar, with several infrastructure projects underway that involve Myanmar, India, and Bangladesh. If India were to deploy its own troops or security personnel to protect its interests, it could further complicate the situation and potentially escalate tensions in the region.

The Chinese government has reached an agreement with Myanmar's military junta that allows Chinese private security guards to be deployed to Myanmar and hired by Chinese companies operating there. This move effectively legitimizes the military regime and signals China's clear support for the junta in its ongoing suppression of pro-democracy activists. The Chinese government's decision to support Myanmar's military junta will likely disappoint those who advocate for a democratic government in the country. This move reinforces the junta's power and hinders the prospects of democratic reforms in Myanmar.

China's decision to deploy private security forces to Myanmar has significant implications for India. It suggests that India's diplomatic efforts to address the crisis in Myanmar have been limited. The instability in Myanmar, particularly the increased rebel activity and cross-border illicit trade, has a direct impact on India's northeastern states. India will likely need to reassess its approach to Myanmar and consider alternative strategies to protect its interests and maintain regional stability.

Recent positive developments, such as India's invitation to rebel groups for seminars in India and Bangkok, and the proactive stance of Thailand's new Prime Minister, suggested that a peaceful resolution to the Myanmar crisis was within reach. However, China's deployment of private security forces has disrupted these efforts and introduced a new element of complexity to the situation.

The deployment of Chinese private security guards in Myanmar is a significant development with far-reaching implications. While it may offer a short-term solution for protecting Chinese investments, a prolonged presence of these guards could lead to interference in Myanmar's internal affairs. This decision by the Chinese government has the potential to strain regional relationships, particularly with India.

What is significant is that in the last two days, the rebel Arakan troops have taken complete control of Rakhine province and in the adjoining provinces, the rebel troops have advanced their respective positions. China has good relations with Arakan rebels, simultaneously keeping its political relations with Myanmar junta quite stable. This is China’s realpolitik which India is facing. Its contacts so far with the rebel groups are thin and in no way comparable with the Chinese influence. After Bangladesh, in Myanmar also, India is losing its diplomatic initiative to its geo-political rival China. (IPA Service)