The Samajwadi Party and Congress alliance, which could not be certainly described as INDIA bloc as SP went to the polls with its PDA slogan quite different from the agenda of INDIA bloc, winning 43 seats, relegating the tally of BJP to 36 which had bagged 63 in the 2019 election, underscores the basic reality that the Dalit, poor, liberals and progressives are too eager to rally behind the secular forces, but regrettably they have failed them.

Yogi government allowing the Hindutva zealots to indulge in reckless activities, targeting the Dalits and minorities, misusing the state machinery to dig the entire state in search for the Hindu idols underneath the mosques and continuing to pursue communal and divisive politics is the manifestation of the fact that even after being in power for nearly eight years the saffron ecosystem has not succeeded in winning the trust of the people.

December 16, statement of state’s Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath exposes his deep frustration and helplessness. Citing Babarnama in the legislative assembly only three days back he claimed that a structure, known as Jama Masjid in Sambhal today, was constructed after destroying Harihar temple. In the same breath he also said the report of the judicial commission on the Sambhal violence would clarify everything. He also questioned the Muslim community over the non-reciprocity of tolerance shown by Hindus. Strange since the report of the judicial commission is the final document to decide the issue, why Yogi cited Babarnama. It was simply a ploy to malign the Muslims and convince the Hindus of the claims of the saffron bigots.

His action to cite Babarnama obviously points to wider discontent amongst the people against the Hindus assisted by police going on rampage in which five Muslim youths were killed. The most silly and imprudent statement he made was his suggestion to the leader of the opposition, Samajwadi Party (SP) leader Mata Prasad Pandey. Yogi said “being a Brahmin, you must believe in our Puranas which say that Vishnu's tenth incarnation will take birth in this Sambhal.”

The secular and socialist forces should take one or two lessons from the saffron ecosystem about how to preserve the façade of unity for the sake of the benefit of the saffron politics. Only last month by-elections to nine assembly seats were held, but SP chief Akhilesh Yadav did not concede three seats to Congress. SP contested all the seats and lost all to the BJP. Yadav has been suffering with the malaise of inflated ego and he has been consistently refusing to have his ear to the ground and listen to the peoples’ voice.

The SP losing all the assembly seats in by elections, sends a loud and clear message that it was the Congress, especially Rahul factor and his counter narrative that helped the SP win 43 seats, including six of Congress. For the Congress, the result signalled a reaffirmation of Rahul Gandhi’s leadership, which was questioned by Yadav because of electoral setbacks in the past. Most shocking for BJP was it lost the seats which were believed to be strongest base of Yogi Adityanath .It lost Ayodhya even after consecration of the Ram Mandir.

From both aspects, subjective and objective, the conditions are very favourable for the resurgence of the anti-rightist forces, committed to secularism and socialism. But Akhilesh has not been able to exploit it. The Yogi government is rocked by allegations of massive corruption. Only a week back Asish Patel, the husband of the union minister Anupriya Patel, who is also a minister in Yogi government, was hauled inside the assembly on bribe charge. Youths have to pay huge bribe for getting a government job. BJP’s dismal show has disenchanted the youth. Repeated disruptions and paper leaks of recruitment examinations have tarnished the image of the government.

Though Yogi government has been claiming to bring in big investment in the state, but it not succeeded so far. Adani is the only hope. Lack of job creation and rising unemployment opportunities have added to this angst. Apprehensions of youths taking to criminal activities have proved to be correct. The latest National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) report show over 32% jump in cases pertaining to children in conflict with law in Uttar Pradesh. while nationally cases of children in conflict with law have declined. In 2019, as many as 32,269 cases were registered across the country in this category, while the 2021 report registered a decline of 3.5%, recording 31,170 cases. UP had recorded 976 cases in the category in 2019, but in 2021, it registered a rise of 32.6% with 1,330 cases.

While the law and order condition is yet to improve, the police officers have turned island of beyond law. They have ceased to be answerable to law instead the law has become subservient. Yogi is faced with two major challenges: Improve the functioning of the government, make it answerable, end unemployment and the most important, to restore public confidence in his leadership. The dual leadership factor caused immense danger not only to Yogi. It has adversely affected functioning of the party not only in UP, instead it has pan Indian impact. RSS has been promoting Yogi as the challenger to Modi. The war of attrition between the two leaders has made the people nurse that both have been responsible for their miseries. Yogi’s leaning towards Rajputs has even alienated other upper castes, Brahman and Bhumihars, besides the Jatavs and Dalits.

Dalits, SC and EBC rallying behind Rahul and endorsing his narrative of caste census simply underscores that while BJP and RSS, notwithstanding having a strong pracharak (cadre) and supporter network, have not reached out to them and fulfill their aspiration. On the contrary Rahul centring on caste issue and demanding for holding of the caste census, has made a deep impact on them. Undeniably Rahul and Akhilesh exposed the limited appeal of polarisation, and saw a revival of caste playing a dominant role.
Yogi who had managed to smoothen his relations with some of his adversaries and succeeded in evolving a new internal party dynamics, particularly improve his relationship with leaders close to Amit Shah and Modi, has been once again finding walking through a blind alley. The state is witnessing lull before the storm. Yogi will have to face major political upheaval once the name of new president of the BJP is announced. It is not sure that RSS which had stepped in to mediate and had successfully resolved the conflict, would adopt the same stance and approach towards Yogi. Many senior leader RSS leaders from the state have complained to the RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat about the lack of focus and purpose of the UP government.

Yogi is trying to project his government as the most effective and efficient instrument. But unfortunately for him, even some of the top leaders question his claim. Addressing the winter session of the state Assembly, Yogi cited figures of the National Crime Record Bureau (NCRB), saying the state has not witnessed a single incident of communal violence since 2017 while from 2012 to 2017 (during SP's tenure), there were 815 such incidents and 192 people were killed. Similarly, between 2007 and 2011, there were 616 incidents and 121 deaths. Those hostile to him confide that during those days’ riots had taken place when BJP was in opposition. The latest figures are also on quite high side. This, according to them, implies that Yogi has no control on police machinery. But yet, Yogi is emerging as a top leader in BJP. (IPA Service)