Systemic vulnerabilities are underscored by the latest data. Manufacturing and. construction output has weakened. Trade figures reveal a dip in both imports and exports. The services sector has stalled.
An atmosphere of uncertainty, which is not improved by anticipation and immediate aftermath of a new fiscal policy, envelops the business sector. There is a modest tide in consumer confidence. But it is insufficient to offset broader economic stagnation. Indeed the UK economy is at a crossroads.
An ambitious government budget aiming to reinvigorate the economy lies at the heart of the matter. For it comes with difficult decisions like higher taxes for businesses and increased social security contributions.
Such measures are necessary to address the fiscal gaps and invest in public infrastructure. But at the same time it invites the risk of dampening business sentiment and deterring public sector activity in the short run.
This is by no means an unprecedented approach as many advanced countries adopt austerity during economic adversity periods. To recalibrate sluggish growth adopting investment heavy strategies is not unheard of.
Reduced corporate activity and strained employer finances are some of the fallouts of this game-plan of economic revival. But looked at through a broader lens, public investment in infrastructure, healthcare and education has the potential to deliver substantial economic dividends in the medium and long-term.
Besides stimulating domestic demand, these investments create an enabling atmosphere for business to thrive. But there has to be clarity and consistency in implementing these policies. UK's recovery had been sluggish compared to its peers in this period. Similarly burdened by energy costs and supply chain issues, only Germany fares worse in the growth metrics.
With its cautious approach in monetary policy, the Bank of England faces a difficult task. Interest rate cuts though tempting can shoot up inflationary pressure and in its turn destabilise an already fragile investor confidence.
Growth aspirations has to be balanced with economic stability. To achieve this fiscal and monetary policies have to be deftly coordinated. Success depends on the government's ability to communicate its vision effectively. The powers that be has to reduce the hardship of both business and households. The road ahead may be rocky. But there is hope for a more resilient and inclusive economic future. (IPA Service)
UK ECONOMY SEEKING TO STRIKE A BALANCE AMIDST GDP DECLINE
ECONOMIC STAGNATION WOES HIT BOTH CORPORATES AND HOUSEHOLDS
Tirthankar Mitra - 21-12-2024 11:44 GMT-0000
Consecutive monthly decline in GDP marking the first back to back contraction since the Covid-19 lockdown are signals to UK economy policymakers to clear the decks for a precarious balancing act. This is necessary to stabilise short-term economic performance while fostering long-term growth.