Union Minister of Finance Nirmala Sitharaman will be tabling the Union Budget 2025-26 on February 1, only four days earlier from Delhi elections. BJP has promised several measures for education, health, and women during the election campaign, and hence it can’t politically afford to present a Union Budget contrary to the promises it has made, lest AAP, which seems to be set to win the electoral battle, would expose the BJP and secure his win. Such a situation would be politically very damaging to the BJP, not only in Delhi, but also in Bihar, which is set to have polls later this year, and where youth are on the war path against BPSC competitive examinations irregularities.

BJP’s poll promises in Delhi include free education from KG to PG with financial assistance to youths preparing for competitive examinations, free of cost treatment up to Rs 10 lakhs, and Rs 2500 per month for women. It should be noted that these are the three sectors in which AAP has done great work, and has made further promises, with a campaign that if BJP comes to power it would dismantle his works done for Delhi. BJP would not like to give any political handle to AAP supremo Kejriwal by not doing enough for education, health, and women’s welfare.

However, there is second layer of problem which Union Minister of Finance Nirmala Sitharaman is facing –that is resource crunch on account of the economic slowdown in the current financial year. The Indian economy grew by only 5.4 per cent in real terms in the July-September quarter, which is quite lower than the RBI’s forecast of 7 per cent. Even in the first quarter Indian economy grew at a slower rate of 6.7 per cent. The year thus marked a slowdown, and the RBI in its latest monetary policy had cut India’s growth forecast for the current year to 6.6 per cent from 7.2 per cent of earlier forecast.

How troublesome is Indian economy’s current slowdown can just be imagined by the fact that it grew by 8.7 per cent in 2021-22, by 7.2 per cent in 2022-23, and by 8.2 per cent in 2023-24. The GDP’s falling down to 5.4 per cent in the second quarter of the current financial year, and not much improvement expected for the rest of the year has tied up the Union Finance Minister’s hands.

Nevertheless, there is no escape for the Union Minister of Finance Nirmala Sitharaman, and she is forced to come out with special attention to education, health, and women’s welfare, in the form of increased allocations.

India’s education sector is presently in transition mode. All levels of education have to implement the National Education Policy 2020, which require more funding, to align it with the growth aspiration of Vikasit Bharat by 2047. We would need to foster skills development and human capital, and also strengthening of digital education and ed-tech with introduction of AI. The total budget of the Union Ministry of Education was Rs 1,20,628 crore for 2024-25, which was actually a reduction of Rs 9,090 crore. Union Government can’t afford reduction in the education budget for 2025-26 too.

As for health, strengthening of public healthcare is to be prioritized, especially primary healthcare and district hospitals. More funding for Ayushman Bharat Scheme is on the cards, if promises to Delhi voters is of any indication. Other focus areas are mental health, medical education and capacity building, and healthcare infrastructure. Increasing investment in healthcare makes sense in the present scenario in which employment generation is a major task before the Union government. Rs 87,657 crore was allocated for health sector in 2024-25, which is not enough given the out-of-pocket expenditure of people still as high as 39.4 per cent as per the latest data given for 2021-22.

Since the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare has taken up with states to prioritize allocation to health sector and enhance their health budgets by at least 10 per cent every year, it is not expected that the Union Government would take contrary measures for its own budget. Mission mode projects like Pradhan Mantri-Ayushman Bharat Health Infrastructure Mission (PM-ABHIM), Ayushman Aarogya Mandir (erstwhile AB-HWC) and Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (PM-JAY) are likely to be further strengthened apart from the National Health Mission.

Healthcare for women is especially important, for both economic and political reasons. Since women have already emerged as a stronger vote bank in the last one year, Union Budget 2025-26 will have to come out with innovative measures. It should be noted that the Gender Budget Statement for 2024-25 shows an allocation of over Rs 3 lakh crore to schemes for women and girls. The budget also included initiatives to improve women’s participation in the workforce which needs further push on account of changing world of work which is largely going to be technologically driven. More women’s empowerment initiatives, their safety and security measures, and education for girls are likely to take more attention with increased allocations that politically pays, irrespective of the financial constraints due to economic slowdown. (IPA Service)