In the beginning of the election campaign BJP focused on two specific strategies – first, targeting AAP leadership for corruption and causing huge loss of exchequer in freebees adversely impacting the development of Delhi; and second, targeting Congress by emphasising that INDIA bloc is crumbling down.

Congress and AAP decided to contest Delhi election on their own despite theirs being part of INDIA bloc, which led the BJP to hope that their split would divide the anti-BJP votes which in turn would benefit the BJP. They were right in thinking so, but their strategy of targeting Congress just went wrong because efforts of weakening Congress reduced the Congress’s capacity to effect greater division of anti-BJP votes.

While targeting the Congress, BJP emphasized that INDIA bloc is crumbling down, invariably quoting other political parties of the bloc supporting AAP as against the Congress. Such type of BJP’s campaign though damaged Congress’ prospect, it strengthened its bet-e-noire AAP. What happened within INDIA bloc, such as parting ways of the Congress and AAP, was initially perceived as a damage to both the INDIA bloc parties’ electoral prospects. BJP, therefore, tried its best to portray both the AAP and Congress in bad light of the split in the bloc.

However, when the other political parties such as Trinamool Congress (TMC), Samajwadi Party (SP) came openly in favour of the AAP, situation changed. Congress was weakened further, first because of its being BJP’s target, and secondly by the clear signal to the electorate of Delhi that Congress has been isolated in Delhi election even among the INDIA bloc allies.

It went against the BJP’s political prospect of winning Delhi elections by wresting power from the AAP, since BJP leadership was hoping on division of anti-BJP votes. Initially, BJP had hoped that Congress would be able to increase its vote share from less than 5 per cent they had bagged in 2020 Vidhan Sabha Elections to about 15 per cent, which may pave the way for BJP win.

However, in fast changing political scenario in Delhi, Congress’ electoral prospect could not increase to the level that BJP had hoped, for which even BJP’s own strategical mis-steps are responsible. In other word BJP damaged its own prospect.

On the other hand, TMC’s and SP’s decisions to not only support AAP in Delhi, but also campaign for its candidates, have drastically reduced the possibility of division in anti-BJP votes, majority of which are still with AAP, and only a small fraction is likely to shift towards Congress. The move of the INDIA bloc allies favouring AAP, in effect has nothing to do against the Congress, but is targeted against the BJP, that too unitedly. Therefore, the political situation on the ground shows that the electoral battle is chiefly fought between the AAP and BJP, and the Congress on the fringe of the political battle.

BJP’s political strategy against AAP and its supremo Arvind Kejriwal initially revolved round the allegation of corruption. Even during the election, Union Government given approval of prosecution against Arvind Kejriwal. By then every single accused of corruption in Delhi liquor case has already on bail, with Supreme Courts adverse comments against CBI and Enforcement Directorate. The new approval, thus was seen by the common electorate as victimisation of Arvind Kejriwal and his party by the BJP led Union Government.

BJP leadership, especially the Prime Minister of India, has termed the freebees under welfare schemes launched for the common people by opposition political parties as ‘revaris’. BJP leadership claimed that freebees have been causing heavy loss the exchequer and the country’s development. AAP Supremo Kejriwal then launched the political campaign “Revri pe charcha”. His campaign received very good response from the people, which compelled the BJP to promise numerous freebees if they come to power.

The BJP’s promises for freebees, though at surface level attractive for the electorates, gave a fresh tool in the hands of Arvind Kejriwal, who said, that PM Narendra Modi now must accept that AAP’s giving freebees were not bad to the national development, since they have also been promising freebees.

BJP’s position on freebees further turned ridiculous when Arvind Kejriwal started his new campaign claiming that if BJP will come to power it will stop all welfare schemes for the people his government has launched, and there will be not free electricity, water, education, or healthcare under BJP’s rule.

It has made BJP defensive again, and the party has been telling in the last phase of election campaign that BJP will not stop any welfare scheme that Kejriwal government has launched if they come to power. Additionally, BJP leaders are saying that they would launch many new welfare programmes, and the party has promised in its manifest. BJP is thus indirectly campaigning for Kejriwal and AAP government.

The election campaign in Delhi has also clearly seen direct involvement of officials on behalf of the BJP, a very bad thing in democracy, since officials in Delhi are not under direct control of the elected AAP government but are placed under the control of Lieutenant Governor under law, who acts on direction of the Union Government led by BJP.

During the election campaign, when the AAP promised more financial help to women and free medical facilities, the government officials issued public notice that the promises were fraudulent. The latest example of officials doing politics against AAP is the rebuttal by Delhi Jal Board CEO on Arvind Kejriwal’s allegation that Haryana is poisoning Yamuna river water. DJB CEO has sent a written letter to Delhi Chief Secretary and said Kejriwal’s allegation against Haryana was “factually incorrect, without basis” requesting hit to forward his letter to Lieutenant Governor. The letter has been leaked to the media and is widely published.

It is well known that Yamuna is being polluted in every stretch of its flow, including in Haryana, by discharge of untreated water and industrial waste. Arvind Kejriwal’s allegation on Haryana is not entirely wrong. His allegation has political significance since the quality of water supply and the Yamuna rival water have lately become a major political issue. Haryana is ruled by BJP, and Delhi is ruled by AAP. Delhi official’s defending BJP ruled Haryana by discrediting AAP and its leadership of Delhi is seen a political involvement of officials against their own elected government.

Political campaign in Delhi has witnessed a sea change now, and may surprise analysts further in the last week before it stops on February 3. (IPA Service)