China supports the talks and hopes to benefit from rebuilding. It is also taking advantage of growing disagreements between the U.S. and its allies, especially over NATO. Beijing's biggest concern is what Trump will do next. People close to the U.S. President, like Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth and his son Donald Trump Jr., have suggested that the U.S. wants to direct most of its military power towards China.

John Gong, a professor at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing and a former consultant for China’s Commerce Ministry, said that Beijing is stuck in a difficult situation with no easy way out..He explained that China wants the war to end or at least pause. However, it does not want to become Washington’s main focus.

China has been careful not to anger Trump. It responded to his 10% tariff with only mild actions and has avoided the aggressive "Wolf Warrior" diplomacy it used during his first term. Wolf Warrior diplomacy is an aggressive style of Chinese foreign policy where diplomats strongly defend China’s interests, often using tough language and criticism against other countries, especially Western nations. Xi is mainly focused on the economy, which is struggling with a long-lasting property crisis, falling prices, and weak consumer spending.

Last week, Chinese :President met with Alibaba’s former outcast, Jack Ma, to signal an end to regulatory crackdowns and restore confidence as Beijing gets ready to announce its growth target next month. Regulatory crackdowns on Alibaba mean stricter government rules and fines for the company. China had tightening control over big tech firms to prevent monopolies and ensure they follow government policies.

Trump has taken a softer approach toward China, saying on Wednesday February 19 that a trade deal is “possible” and highlighting his “very good relationship” with Xi. However, his administration includes officials who take a tough stance on China, like Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has promised to challenge China’s actions in the South China Sea.

China would be careful about more attention on its actions in the Indo-Pacific, where it has disputes with the Philippines and claims over Taiwan. Beijing has criticized the U.S. for trying to create a NATO-like alliance in the Pacific, especially as the Biden administration strengthens security ties with Japan and South Korea. Showing its goal of expanding military influence in the Asia-Pacific, China’s navy sent three warships near Sydney last week. Australia’s defense minister called the move “unusual.”

Suggesting that Trump’s team may already be adopting a tougher approach in Asia, the U.S. State Department recently deleted a statement from a fact sheet saying the U.S. does “not support Taiwan independence.” Beijing often pressures countries with diplomatic ties to agree to this stance. It is not clear whether the change was intentional. However, the U.S. continues to follow its long-standing "one-China policy," which recognizes Beijing as the official government of China while maintaining unofficial ties with Taiwan.

Taiwan is closely watching the situation as Trump warns Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, that if Ukraine doesn’t reach a deal with Russia soon, it might lose its country. A diplomat from Taiwan, which China claims as its own, said that while U.S.-Russia relations may get better, Taiwan's main priority is showing its importance to Trump. The challenge for Taiwan and China is that Trump’s policies don’t always match those of his team. During his campaign, the Republican leader questioned Biden’s promise to defend Taiwan from China and suggested that Taiwan should pay the U.S. for its security.

There is no clear sign that Chinese leader Xi Jinping is planning to invade Taiwan in the near future. However, if the United States—Taiwan’s main military ally—takes a less supportive or weaker stance, Taiwan could face more political, economic, and military pressure from China. This could make it harder for Taiwan to resist Beijing’s influence and maintain its independence.

Another possibility is that China could take part in a Ukraine peace deal led by Trump. The U.S. president talked about a possible meeting with Putin and Xi, where they would agree to reduce military spending by half. However, China quickly rejected this idea.

It’s not clear what China could do to help Ukraine. U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth said that American soldiers won’t be sent and that security support should come from troops in Europe and other countries. This means a United Nations peacekeeping force could be an option, possibly including Chinese troops. However, it’s also possible that China might send its own soldiers directly.

According to Zhou Bo, a retired senior colonel from China’s People’s Liberation Army, Beijing could take the lead in peacekeeping efforts alongside Global South nations and countries that are not part of NATO. Zhou, who is also a senior fellow at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy, shared this view in a report by SCMP. Zhou Bo, also said that if China gets directly involved in Europe’s security for the first time, it would improve China’s reputation and strengthen its position in the world. China’s Foreign Ministry has not said whether Beijing would join such a mission when asked during regular briefings.

According to Yu Jie, a senior research fellow on China at Chatham House, a halt in the fighting in Ukraine gives Beijing a rare chance to improve its strained relationship with Europe. Beijing could help rebuild Ukraine by using its experience in global infrastructure projects and offering low-cost loans through its $1 trillion Belt and Road Initiative. In a 2023 position paper on the conflict, China expressed its willingness to support these efforts, stating that it is ready to assist and contribute positively.

A position paper is an official document that explains a country's or organization's views on an issue. It outlines their stance, proposed solutions, and possible actions they are willing to take. If China decides to support Ukraine’s peace process by sending military aid or financial help, it might create tension in Xi’s strong relationship with Putin—especially if Russia launches another attack. However, there are no clear signs that recent events between Russia and the U.S. are affecting the bond between China and Russia. In fact, Xi is still planning to visit Moscow in May, showing that their partnership remains strong.

According to Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, China is likely to take a long-term approach when dealing with global politics, especially with an unpredictable U.S. leader like Trump. Unlike Trump, who may only be in power for a few years, Putin can remain Russia’s leader until at least 2036—unless health issues arise. This means China may see Putin as a more stable and long-lasting partner compared to Trump.

He explained that it wouldn’t be wise to give up a strong and reliable partnership with someone who will be in power for a long time, just to support a leader who is unpredictable and keeps changing his mind. In global politics, trust and stability matter, so it makes more sense to stick with a dependable partner rather than take a risk on someone who may not be trustworthy or stay in power for long. (IPA Service)