Let us enumerate the setbacks to AAP first, since Lok Sabha Election 2024 in Delhi, where lies the party’s umbilical cord, still intact. BJP won all seven Lok Sabha seats of Delhi. In Vidhan Sabha election 2025, it lost power to BJP that won 48 of 70 seats. Now, after three councillors switching from AAP to BJP has reduced AAP in Municipal Corporation Delhi to minority. BJP is now in majority in MCD House, and hope to have their own Mayor in April 2025. Delhi will have thus triple engine BJP government – in MCD, in the NCT of Delhi, and at the Centre. It may give unprecedented advantage and disadvantage for BJP, in governance and in case of failure in good governance, since a strong AAP has been bent upon on making BJP accountable on every step. BJP will have no alibi, but to perform or else face the political consequences.

On the other hand, AAP, being reduced to, but a strong opposition in Delhi Assembly and MCD House, it has little to defend but only to attack on the ruling triple engine government of BJP to fix their accountability. AAP has long experience of doing aggressive politics against the ruling establishment, which not only brought them in power in 2013 in Delhi, but also were able to remain in power over a decade. AAP thrown Congress out of power after 15 years of their rule, and then thrown BJP out of MCD in 2022 elections after 15 years of their rule. Moreover, both is MCD and in Delhi Assembly AAP has considerable strength.

There are 12 vacancies in 250-member MCD, since 11 of the members have got elected as MLA is the recent Delhi elections, while one of the councillors was elected as MP during the Lok Sabha Election 2024. After switchover of 3 councillors from AAP to BJP, AAP’s strength has reduced to 114, while BJP’s strength increased to 116. The Congress is still insignificant since it has only 8 councillors. This shows BJP will have not smooth sailing in MCD.

In Delhi Assembly, AAP has already shown its strategy by raising politically very disturbing issue of removal of Dr B R Ambedkar and Shaheed Bhagat Singh’s portrait from newly crowned BJP Chief Minister Rekha Gupta. Their portraits were replaced with two another portraits — of PM Narendra Modi and the President Draupadi Murmu. AAP leader and former Chief Minister Atishi raised this issue which led ruckus in the Vidhan Sabha and expulsion of 12 AAP MLAs for the day, which overshadowed the BJP’s plant to table 15 CAG report, which they believed would go against AAP. Nevertheless, Chief Minister could table only one of the reports relating to liquor scam, that said AAP’s policy caused a loss of Rs 2002 crore for the exchequer. The point is, despite majority in Delhi Assembly, BJP will not have any smooth sailing, since AAP would make the party accountable on its promises made during the election campaign. For example, AAP taken the BJP to task for not giving Rs2500 per month to every woman in Delhi as promised during election.

AAP or its Supremo Arvind Kejriwal has found an able hand as former Chief Minister and the party leader Atishi, which she has amply shown in her navigating the political crisis, especially after the defeat in Delhi elections. Arvind Kejriwal may now concentrate in his strategy on nailing his bete-noire PM Narendra Modi, without any fear of further losing political foothold in Delhi in Atishi’s able leadership. It should be noted that Atishi has won her seat in the recent Vidhan Sabha election while even Arvind Kejriwal and many other senior leaders have lost their seats. It is also worth noting that AAP is not far behind BJP in Delhi in terms of vote share, but only less then 2 per cent of votes.

The last 20 days of Arvind Kejriwal shows that he is not suffering from depression despite defeat in Delhi polls. He has rather become super active, meeting AAP rank and file not only in Delhi but also in Punjab where AAP is the ruling party. Punjab holds the key to the future of Arvind Kejriwal, since it is the only state where AAP is in power. Almost every day he has been making political statements, and he has more than doubled his efforts to stage a political comeback. AAP is Punjab is comfortable and there is not threat to its government even the Congress has been trying defection. Arvind Kejriwal is actively supervising the latest development in Punjab politics, which may enable him to overcome the predicaments of the Punjab Unit of AAP.

One Rajya Sabha member of AAP will soon be vacating his seat to make room for Arvind Kejriwal to enter Parliament of India. If everything will go as planned, Arvind Kejriwal would be in Rajya Sabha, to take on PM Modi led BJP government. He will be playing an important role in the national politics, since both the Punjab and Delhi are in able leadership’s hand and his trusted political lieutenants.

Importance of being Arvind Kejriwal will not be dying in near future. Rather, he is most likely to make PM Narendra Modi and his brand of politics more uncomfortable. Congress would also feel the heat, since AAP has planned to target Congress not only in Delhi and Punjab, but also in the states where Congress and BJP are in direct contest with each other. It would be very interesting to see how it would shape INDIA bloc politics too. No doubt, Arvind Kejriwal’s navigating the crisis is difficult, but sailing for BJP would also not be smooth, unless he is rearrested and put into jail under draconian laws without giving him fair chance of judicial trial. (IPA Service)