The image and concept of the mainstream politics has always been an alien discernment for it. Though RSS has been active in Bihar for quite long time, during the days of Jana Sangh, it remains an intrigue why it could not comprehend the basic character and traits of the politics in Bihar. Besides winning the trust of the upper castes, the saffron ecosystem has not succeeded in reaching out to the backward castes or Dalits. Of course the RSS and BJP may showcase cite its OBC and Dalit MLAs and MPs as the sign of its following among OBCs, the Dalits, but it purely is an attempt of self-aggrandisement, which does not reflect at the ground level.

The politicking that is being resorted to by the BJP for last one week is simply continuation of the same brand of the politics, which also manifests its absolute failure. What happened during three days, from February 25 to 27, makes it explicit that BJP is not willing to learn from the past developments. On February 25, at the Bhagalpur rally Narendra Modi openly ridiculed Nitish Kumar, who is perceived to articulate the aspirations of the intermediate castes, except Yadavs. Modi did this notwithstanding his being aware of the fact , without Nitish, he cannot imagine to defeat Lalu Yadav.

Modi’s contempt for Nitish was also perceptible in the induction of seven BJP MLAs in his cabinet, just after a day of the Bhagalpur rally, where he shared dias with Nitish. While in Patna, Modi did not convey his desire to Nitish to induct seven BJP ministers in the cabinet. Like the proverbial paper slip, that was handed over to Vasundhara Raje Scindia by Rajnath Singh at a meeting in Rajasthan carrying the name of the would be chief minister of the state, the BJP president J P Nadda landed in Patna on February 26 with the name of the new ministers.

Nadda stayed at the circuit house. His audacity and the nature of the importance of the message could be understood from the simple fact, that instead of calling on the Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar, either at his residence or office, he summoned him to circuit house. Nitish to the surprise of his senior party leaders rushed to him. Nadda during his brief interaction handed over the names of the new ministers to be sworn in. Like a true subservient Nitish performed the task on February 27. He did not delay or held back for some other convenient date.

Saffron insiders confide that entrusting the task to Nadda has wider implication. Modi or Amit Shah could have deputed some other leader. But they assigned the task to the party president. Nitish was made to expand his cabinet just nine months ahead of the assembly election. Seven new MLAs, Sanjay Saraogi, Sunil Kumar, Jibesh Mishra, Motilal Prasad, and Raju Kumar Singh, were sworn in as cabinet ministers. Surprisingly this exercise also noticed divesting of BJP state president Dilip Jaiswal, of post of revenue minister. Though after resigning his ministerial post he cited the BJP's "One Person, One Post" policy to justify his action, the political circle was abuzz with the news that he was to resign for being close to Nitish. He was appointed as state president only in January.

Usually Modi and Amit Shah consulted Nitish Kumar before making any policy decision. For the first time the national BJP leadership took unilateral decision ignoring Nitish. This has in fact shaken the confidence of the JD(U) leaders and they are apprehensive many more such actions. What has shocked them is acquiescent approach of Nitish. He accepted without objecting. Non induction of even a single JD(U) MLA has baffled the political observers.. In the induction of seven BJP ministers, the BJP has not only focused on regional balancing but also caste representation to strengthen its appeal across communities. Five out of seven are from intermediate castes. The rest two are from upper castes. BJP has focused more on the caste base of Nitish and which was why it inducted at least four MLAs from Kori-Kurmi, Marwari and Kewat communities.

What forced Modi to redecorate BJP as the party of OBC and Dalit by inducting these legislators? Well informed sources underline that Rahul Gandhi succeeding in his mission to reach out to the OBCs, EBCs, Dalit and Muslims has unnerved the saffron ecosystem. Saffron leaders nurse the feeling that this action would to a large extent convince these people of the sincerity of the BJP leadership for their betterment. Rahul would not inflict further damage to its support base. If the sources are to be relied the Dalits and OBCs who have identified with BJP only some seven months back are drifting away.

Besides yet another factor that has completely shaken Modi and Amit Shah is Rahul’s move to renovate and revive the Congress in the state. He has deputed some young academics to revitalise the party in Bihar. Most of the Congress observers to the state party, have no primordial relations either with the politics of states or its politicians. They mean business and this has been causing trouble for the so called established Congress leaders. The experts say that Congress has suddenly acquired spirit and momentum. Village and block level camps and meets are being organised. The basic mission of the party is to make aware the poor of the dangers of the communal and religious politics that is being practiced by the BJP and RSS.

Nevertheless these young observers have a tough challenge confronting them. Bihar is the state from where maximum number of people, especially rural people, went to Prayag for Maha Kumbh dip. They perceive it as deep penetration of religious and communal politics of saffron in the state.

Modi is also toying with the idea to prepone the election sometime in August and September instead of having it in November this year. This has acquired importance in view of the averseness of the RSS to deploy its manpower and resources in Bihar and also in Bengal, as it had done in Delhi. They are feeling aggrieved at BJP claiming the Delhi victory as its own achievement. In this backdrop the BJP leadership holds the view that preponing of Bihar election will give some time space and help them to send their cadres and leaders from Bihar to Bengal for electioneering. These cadres and leaders would be used in north Bengal and some pockets in Calcutta.

Through inducting new faces, Modi and Shah have also conveyed the message to their rank and file in Bihar that a weak Nitish would not pose any serious threat to them. They are also sure that this induction will also help the party to make an inroad in Nitish’s support base. Any decline in Nitish’s support will eventually help the BJP. However the BJP leadership is scared of a possible shift to this support base to Congress, which has already finalised a Dalit face to lead the state unit. Congress leaders are confident that with the state party coming out of control of Lalu Yadav, the state unit would witness influx of new supporters and sympathisers.

BJP is also planning to weaken Lalu Yadav and hijack his Yadav support base. The Railway Land for Job case is being reopened and the court will start the process of hearing from March 2. The RJD leaders are apprehensive of the intentions of the move. They view it as an attempt to arrest Lalu and Tejashvi just ahead of the assembly election. A senior RJD leader said through the game of cabinet expansion of Bihar BJP has completely hijacked JD(U). The BJP wants to finish the JD(U). Many of the leaders are there in JD(U). BJP wants to be a dominant force here but it could not accomplish it unless it manages to weaken RJD. But he is confident that their dream will remain a mere dream.

He also said already a section of Nitish support base has started shifting towards RJD and Congress. They nurse the feeling that JD(U) will be marginalized in 2025. It is not possible for Nishant, son of Nitish to lead the party. Nitish is tired and has been losing his credibility. (IPA Service)