Gabbard is a Hindu by religion and follows the Vaishnabite rites. Though she was a democrat congress member from Howai for four terms, her switchover to Trump camp after 2021 brought her close to the BJP-RSS more and Narendra Modi at a personal level. BJP’s overseas body in USA had close relations with Gabbard even in her Democratic Party days. Ram Madhav, the senior RSS leader in charge of overseas BJP in USA was the link between Gabbard and BJP.

Gabbard looks after the work of CIA which does Intel work in foreign countries including India and Bangladesh. In the course of bilateral talks, Prime Minister Modi will have a detailed review of the situation in Bangladesh on the basis of the inputs provide by Gabbard. It can be mentioned that at the news conference in Washington during Indian PM’s visit to the White House on February 13 for a bilateral meeting with the newly elected president, Trump mentioned that as far as Bangladesh was concerned, PM Modi would look at it thereby indicating that he would go by the assessment of the Indian side on the Bangladesh situation.

That way Indian Prime Minister has a big advantage in dealing with situation in Bangladesh in his own way with tacit Trump government support and supporting Intel from a friendly Intel chief Tulsi Gabbard. Trump personally does not like the Bangladesh interim head Dr. Muhammad Yunus whom he earlier called a lackey of Hillary Clinton. Trump’s South Asian advisers are monitoring the developments in Bangladesh. They are not making any diplomatic moves as centrally, Trump administration is too much preoccupied with Ukraine and Europe issues now. South Asia is no priority at the present stage.

Bangladesh interim regime as also the political parties are also waiting with anxiety at the coming meeting of Modi with Gabbard. CIA had a long history of organising regime change from behind. In Bangladesh, lot of political analysts and informed people alleged that CIA was proactive among a section of organisers of the July-August 2024 movement which led to the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government and fleeing of the Prime Minister to India on August 5, 2024. A general assessment is that the students movement was spontaneous and widespread but the pace was facilitated faster through CIA funds since the Biden government was against the Hasina regime.

CIA’s actions are always done through its handlers-they may be army generals or bureaucrats in high places or even the political leaders. The CIA never comes in the front. But they still play their role when asked by the political bosses in the White House. There is a worry in a political section of Bangladesh whether the CIA under Trump and Tulsi Gabbard will play any role once again if the political situation in Bangladesh deteriorates further.

Right now, more than seven months after Dr. Muhammad Yunus took over as the interim head of Bangladesh government on August 8, the split within the movement which led to the ouster of Sheikh Hasina and installation of Yunus regime as an interim measure, has only widened. BNP, the major political party which is supporting the interim regime, has fallen out with Dr. Yunus. The BNP chairperson Begum Zia is expected to be back in April this year from her treatment in London, After that, BNP will be launching massive movement for the holding of elections.

The main body of the anti-discriminatory movement founded a new party last month National Citizens Party (NCP) led by the prominent face of the anti-Hasina movement Nahid Islam. This new party has taken a position against the BNP and will be fighting the national elections on the basis of its own strength and symbol. The Jammat Islami groups have been strengthened but a good section of the younger elements have joined the new party which has got some fringe left elements also. BNP and the old leadership of Jammat have cordial relations but new young leaders of Jammat are fighting BNP.

As of now, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has spurned all moves by the Bangladesh interim head Dr. Yunus to have a bilateral meeting with him. Bangladesh interim head tried to meet Modi in New York during last September’s UN general assembly session, but the Indian prime minister avoided him by rescheduling his programme. Bangladesh has used the Hasina extradition issue as a weapon against India in international fora. Officially, Bangladesh has demanded extradition of Hasina from India so that she could be put to trial in Dhaka. India has not responded at all. Dr. Yunus will be meeting the UN secretary general in Dhaka and is expected to mention the extradition issue and also the atrocities during Sheikh Hasina regime.

For India, the most disquieting aspect of present Bangladesh developments is the big entry of Pakistan now in every aspect of its former enemy country covering education, economy and more importantly in military. In the last three months, Pakistan and Bangladesh have exchanged visits of army delegations. The Indian officials were alarmed to witness the visit of Pakistan intelligence chief to Dhaka and their talks with Bangladesh officials on Intel sharing. Pak army officers have been invited to train a section of Bangladesh forces.

At the same time, there are murmurs that Bangladesh army’s top leadership is split between pro Pakistani and nationalist elements. The rejuvenated pro Islamic officers want to remove the present chief of staff General Waqaruz Zaman, who is related to Hasina and is known as a Bangladeshi nationalist disfavouring any spread of Pak influence over army. General Zaman few days ago met the interim head Dr. Yunus and complained about the deterioration of law and order and sought more powers for army.

Bangladesh has a long history of coups by army generals. So, the present turmoil and the spat between the nationalists and pro Pak islamists in the army have set a fertile ground of all sorts of rumour. All foreign agencies are in touch with their handlers including the CIA, RAW and the Chinese agency. Indian Prime Minister during his meeting is expected to get a detailed appraisal by the CIA of the latest positioning in Bangladesh. This info will be of help to the Indian PM in formulating the strategy in dealing with Bangladesh.

Indian Prime Minister is expected to attend the BIMSTEC meeting in Bangkok from April 2 to 4 this year. Bangladesh interim head Dr. Yunus will be attending also. Dr. Yunus is desperately looking at his meeting with Narendra Modi though officially Indian side has not confirmed that such a meeting will be taking place. But unofficial sources indicate that there is possibility of such a meeting. If that happens, that will be the first meeting between two heads after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina and taking over by Dr. Yunus. Indian side will then be advantageously placed based on the Intel provided by Gabbard. It will be seen how far both leaders can go to iron out their present differences to arrive at a common ground for improving bilateral relations. (IPA Service)