Present indications suggest that the response from Russia has been more encouraging in recent months despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. As for China, which has already made major investments in Pakistan exceeding $50 billion in building the ambitious CPEC highway project, authorities in Beijing are currently studying Islamabad's request for a fresh $1.4 billion loan.

Pak-based analysts have warned Islamabad about the risks involved in seeking Chinese financial help. The country is heavily indebted to China already, occasionally finding it difficult to maintain its repayment schedule. This has often led to the Chinese authorities slowing down the pace of ongoing power supply projects and tourism -related schemes coming up along the CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) highway. The impressive infra development project .seeking to link the Xinjiang region with the Gwadar port off Karachi remains a matter of bilateral pride.

While welcoming the flagship project as a whole which has helped Pakistan increase its power generation of late, there is some concern in Pak Media reports that Islamabad has already sunk into a debt trap via-a-vis China. They point to the double-edged nature of Chinese financial help, where long standing defaults are often written off in exchange for the lenders securing an equity in the completed projects. This gives them a considerable power in controlling local economic assets as well as earning major profits, bringing a loss to the local economy!

Analysts mostly refer to the experience of Sri Lanka some years ago as it failed to make its loan repayments in time. The Chinese responded by acquiring functional control of some seaports/airports on long lease. The Sri Lankans are currently better off after suffering a brief spell of near bankruptcy, not least because of urgent financial assistance from India and Western agencies like the IMF.

The problem with Pakistan is that in the present situation, it cannot very well approach the IMF or World Bank for much relief, while seeking Indian assistance remains out of the question.

Against this background, the Russian assistance in various sectors have certainly brought some relief for Pakistan. Incidentally it is the much maligned former Prime Minister Imran Khan, currently serving a prison sentence, who had made a decisive break with the US and directly establishing contact with Russia. He had even managed to meet President Vladimir Putin briefly to organize assistance for ailing Pakistan economy.

Observers noted that both countries were facing a hard time the US/EU-led Western power bloc, along with a financial blockade. Therefore both countries were keen to increase mutual trade and general co-operation.

International isolation apart, Russia had already begun a diplomatic reset in its regional diplomacy in South Asia, despite its close links and active partnership with India within the BRICS group. The groundwork for developing closer Pak-Russian ties was laid by then Prime Minister Z.A. Bhutto who visited the Soviet Union in 1974, the first Pak leader to do so. For Russia, Mr. Alexei Kosygin made a trip to Pakistan.

A brief look at the extent of bilateral trade and business between the two countries shows that Russia remains the stronger partner, with latest export figures for wheat ($658 mil), crude oil ($47 mil) and other assorted items ($161 mil) to Pakistan. Its exports had risen on a y-to-y basis by an average 22% during the last 5 years, rising from $328 million in 2018 to $884 in 2023. .

Pakistan also bought Railway equipment EVs, cosmetics, toilet items, perfumes, glass items etc. It exported to Russia among other items, halal meat, solar energy-related equipment, mobiles and accessories. Exact export figures for Pakistan were not available, but the volume of overall bilateral trade crossed $1 billion in 2024. Both countries were hopeful that trade/business would rise majorly in 2025. , .

Russia was also providing expertise, financing and other help in helping Pak build 3 major highways linking Peshawar, Sukkur and other regions, apart from assuring its smaller neighbour of continuing supplies of crude oil at discounted prices. (IPA Service)