CNN reported that Turkish authorities detained Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu – a key rival to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan – on Wednesday (19 March) as part of corruption and terrorism investigations.

Detention orders were also issued for around 100 others connected to Imamoğlu, including his press adviser Murat Ongun, according to state-run news agency Anadolu Agency. Among those detained are elected Istanbul district mayors Resul Emrah Sahan and Murat Calik.

The move came just days before the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) was scheduled to hold a primary election where Imamoğlu was expected to be chosen as its presidential candidate.CHP leader Ozgur Ozel called the detention “a coup attempt against our next president.”

On Saturday, protests in support of Imamoğlu erupted in Istanbul – where flares and stones were thrown at police, who responded with pepper spray – while in Ankara, the capital, police used water cannon and tear gas on demonstrators.

The interior minister, Ali Yerlikaya, said 323 people had been detained following protests on Saturday night. Earlier, he said: “There will be no tolerance for those who seek to violate societal order, threaten the people’s peace and security, and pursue chaos and provocation.”

During the week, Imamoğlu and more than 100 other people including municipal officials and the head of the mayor’s construction firm were served detention orders and accused of embezzlement and corruption – charges the mayor denies. He also denies terrorism charges levelled at him over collaboration with a leftwing political coalition prior to local elections last year, which saw major losses for Erdoğan’s Justice and Development party (AKP).

On the global stage, the return of US President Donald Trump has created a climate where autocratic leaders feel emboldened. And his history of turning a blind eye to democratic backsliding suggests Washington will not challenge Turkiye’s actions, as it prioritises geopolitical concerns over human rights.

The Guardian, reported Gönül Tol, an analyst with the Washington-based Middle East Institute, as saying that the president of the United States is undermining democracy there, meaning the US is looking inward. Basically, Trump just does not care what other autocrats are doing to their people. Further, with a potential conflict involving Iran looming, Washington is unlikely to risk alienating Ankara over the arrest of an opposition leader.

Additionally, recent developments in Syria have seen Turkiye’s strategic importance increase dramatically. Following the Assad regime’s collapse and Iran’s expulsion from key areas, Türkiye has gained significant ground, and the US needs its cooperation in stabilising the region - particularly in countering Iran’s influence in the broader Middle East security framework.

European leaders previously quick to criticise Erdoğan, such as French president Emmanuel Macron, have also yet to voice objections to events in Türkiye amid expectations they could increasingly look to Ankara to supply peacekeepers in Ukraine.

“With Trump’s return to the White House and his shift towards Russia on Ukraine, the Europeans are panicking and trying to boost defence,” said Tol. “In this climate where Europe feels it has to defend itself against Russia alone, there’s more talk about engaging Erdoğan.”

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen became the highest-ranking official to offer any criticism, stating Türkiye “must protect democratic values, especially the rights of elected officials.”

At the ground level, within days, what began as protests in response to Imamoğlu’s detention has grown into something more. Even for the AKP - led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for over two decades now - jailing or disqualifying an official presidential candidate backed by such an overwhelming mandate, might not be manageable. It is a tactic more commonly seen in brazenly and openly autocratic countries, not in a country that still claims to be a democracy.

Basically, CHP’s decision to declare Imamoğlu as the party’s candidate early caused alarm within the ruling party. Expecting this political momentum to only grow in the years leading up to the 2028 elections, the AKP moved swiftly and aggressively. But their decision to act now - before Imamoğlu could consolidate his support - reveals just how much they fear him.

In fact, their urgency betrays their own weakness: The AKP is not as strong as it appears. If it were confident in its electoral dominance, it would have no need to crush Imamoğlu this early on.

But, Erdoğan is a shrewd politician, he knows well that while public anger and the rallying around Imamoğlu may create some trouble for the AKP in the short run, with three more years to go, they hope it will fade in time.

Additionally, this pre-emptive suppression is designed to discourage strong opposition figures from mounting meaningful presidential bids against Erdoğan. If Imamoğlu is successfully sidelined, other potential opposition candidates would be intimidated - or so the AKP’s wishful thinking goes - as any candidate who poses a serious threat to the AKP would face similar consequences.

Imamoğlu’s arrest is just the latest in a long string of politically motivated legal attacks against him. Since taking office in 2019, he has faced over 90 investigations, ranging from accusations of corruption and bribery to absurd charges of overloading public buses during Covid-19. The revocation of his university diploma just one day before his arrest was simply the last nail in the coffin of his presidential bid - a blatant attempt to disqualify him from running.

In the present scenario, Turkiye’s opposition must remain united, as mass protests, legal challenges and grassroots efforts will be key in countering such authoritarian actions. Imamoğlu’s arrest is not just about one man. It is about whether Türkiye will remain a democracy or be transformed into an autocracy. Common Turk’s response will define the country’s future for generations to come. (IPA Service)