Although Houthi attacks on cargo ships have been going on since November 2023, affected countries offered no major resistance until the US military hit back by heavy bombardment on Houthi pirates a week ago, killing nearly three dozen pirates. President Trump warned Iran, believed to be the main backer of the Houthi militants, to immediately halt support for the pirates. The US president said if Iran threatened the US “America will hold you fully accountable and we won’t be nice about it.” Iran has not taken the US threat lightly. In fact, Tehran had immediately responded saying that Iran would respond “decisively and destructively” if they carry out their threats. With Israeli attacks on Palestinians in Gaza intensifying further, Houthis are unlikely to stop Red Sea attacks soon. The US attack has further raised the tension in the sea inlet of the Indian Ocean, lying between Africa and Asia. The trade route’s connection to the ocean is in the south, through the Bab-el-Mandeb strait and the Gulf of Aden. To its north lie the Sinai Peninsula, the Gulf of Aqaba, and the Gulf of Suez—leading to the Suez Canal.

Under the circumstances, free cargo movement through the Red Sea looks even more uncertain. Interestingly, West European countries and their shippers, major users of the Red Sea route, are yet to react strongly against the Houthi rebel attacks. The shipowners and shippers from the region have chosen to divert the trade through a several times longer route via the Cape of Good Hope at the bottom of South Africa. Sea piracies are nothing new. But few have shown such guts as Houthi pirates indiscriminately attacking cargo vessels passing through the area with arms, ammunition, and anti-ship missiles. Cargoes are looted and captured seamen are often thrown into the sea. Maybe, the suspected Iranian backing has made the Houthi pirates even more desperate and adventurous.

The Houthi attacks have forced shippers to avoid one of the world’s most crucial trade routes and use the alternative longer passage through the waters of the southern tip of Africa, adding more than 3,500 nautical miles (6,500 km, approximately) to the journey taking close to half a month of extra sailing time in each trip apart from highly increasing shipping and insurance costs. Since November, 2023, Houthi pirates have targeted vessels passing through the strait of Bab al-Mandab, a 32-km wide channel that splits north-East Africa from Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula. India relies heavily on the Red Sea route (via the Suez Canal) for a significant portion of its import and export cargo, especially the containerised ones. Around 50 percent of India’s exports and 30 percent of imports pass through the route, primarily to and from Europe, North Africa, and the Americas.

Any further muscle flexing on the Red Sea route is bound to impact India’s oil imports. India is the world’s third largest oil importer. It gets the bulk of its Russian supplies through the Red Sea. Russian supplies made up over 35 percent of the country’s crude oil imports. As of now, Russian vessels are spared by the Houthi militants. Iran has been a friend of Russia and also of India. The latter, the world’s biggest importer of vegetable oils, uses the Red Sea route. Among the sectors deeply affected by the Houthi piracy are perishable items from India such as agricultural commodities, farm products, and marine foods, all carrying lean trade margins. The crisis may also hurt India’s export of buffalo meat. Nearly 60 percent of India’s buffalo meat exports go through the Red Sea to north African countries and Russia. A prolonged strife can affect the profitability and working capital cycle of India’s export-oriented industries. “The extent of this will vary depending on sectoral nuances. Supply chain issues could also intensify, curbing trade volume and renewing inflationary pressures,” rating agency CRISIL had said.

No one is very sure as to how the latest US bombardment on Houthi rebels will impact the situation. Ideally, the entire world using the Suez Canal-Red Sea trade link for transportation of goods should come forward to jointly take up the matter with Iran so that the latter can influence Houthis to stop attacks on ships. India is concerned as the Red Sea route accounts for a substantial part of its exports meant for EU member countries, the UK, and the USA. Almost all of these countries are against Gaza militants and have done little to force Israel to stop pounding on Gaza to massacre innocent civilians, including women and children. Ironically, even Arab nations don’t support Gaza militants while they all are in favour of a Palestine state. The matter is getting increasingly complicated as there is no sign of an Israeli withdrawal of strikes on Gaza.

As a result, some of the world’s most powerful nations have chosen to avoid the Red Sea instead of drawing up a collective agenda to negotiate with the Houthi controlled Yemen, the second largest state on the Arabian Peninsula and a member of the United Nations. Several naval forces, including the Indian Navy, are partly active in the Red Sea trying to prevent Houthi pirates from grabbing cargo carriers. However, they seem to have little impact on increasingly desperate Houthi attacks on cargo vessels in the Red Sea. A global action against Yemen may probably end the situation. Unfortunately, no country wanted to take a lead in the matter before the US decided to bombard Houthi militants last week. Unless other stakeholders come forward to join the US forces to confront those Houthi rebels, the situation may worsen for all countries, including India and some Arab nations, using the Red Sea trade route. (IPA Service)