Why is the state moving towards political instability so soon? There could be several reasons but the most important is the leadership crisis in the state Congress as well as handling of issues by the Congress led government at the Centre. Political crisis continues to brew in the state after the tragic helicopter crash of the chief minister Dr. Y.S. Rajashekhara Reddy last September. Now his son Jagan Mohan Reddy, MP, is creating trouble by his yatras in Telengana defying the high command amidst rumours he may float his own outfit.

First of all YSR had an iron grip on the state as well as his party. He had the full backing of the Congress President. He divided the opposition and won the state again during the 2009 elections against all odds and provided a stunning 33 seats to the Congress kitty in the Lok Sabha. With no number two, his novice son Jagan Mohan Reddy claimed his legacy but the Congress could not anoint him in the place of his father.

The second is the choice of K. Rosaiah as chief minister. After opting out of the electoral race to become an MLC, Rosaiah was perhaps the biggest gainer after the death of YSR. Chosen as a stopgap chief minister, Rosaiah was expected to perform well but he has failed miserably. Jagan Mohan and his supporters troubled him enough not to mention the sudden flare up of the Telengana issue.

Jagan is not the kind to wait for long and so he has begun yatras, ostensibly in memory of his father in recent weeks, which have provoked violence in the volatile Telengana region. Rosaiah also had to deal with the worst ever floods soon after he took over. Faced with a rebellious cabinet consisting of Jagan's supporters as well as divided by the Telengana issue, he is perceived to be the weakest chief minister who runs to the centre for every little thing

Thirdly, the Centre did not handle the Telengana issue properly and resurrected the almost defunct TRS and its ailing chief Chandrasekhar Rao. Rajashekhara Reddy made sure that the opposition was divided and would have finished the TRS had he lived longer. The impulsive midnight decision to begin the process of a separate Telengana state has resulted in a vertically divided Congress party and the state cabinet. The setting up of the Sri Krishna Commission as an after thought may or may not help resolve the issue. Meanwhile, Rosaiah has proved to be quite inadequate in handling the law and order situation.

Fourthly, the AICC is now attempting a political realignment in the state by wooing the Praja Rajyam chief Chiranjeevi. Popularly known as “Chiru” to his fans, he also needs the Congress and has agreed to support the fourth Congress candidate in the ensuing Rajya Sabha elections. The Congress had five retiring members but even the fourth seat is difficult to win at present. Chiru's meeting with the Congress chief Sonia Gandhi has raised hopes of the local Congress for a better understanding with the PRP. The Congress would like the PRP to merge with it and in turn “Chiru” could be projected as a charismatic Congress leader. Since elections are four years away, there is no urgency. Moreover, Jagan Mohan's strident attempts to continue his yatra defying the Congress diktat has created a situation that the party should be prepared to part company with him and his supporters. He is said to enjoy the support of about 18 MLAs. The Rosaiah government would now have to depend upon the MIM's seven legislators and the PRP as a cushion.

Fifthly, had YSR been alive, he would not have allowed the resurrection of the TRS. He would have persuaded the centre not to yield to the pressure of the TRS, a party that lost miserably in the 2009 elections, as it did not have public support. He would have also broken PRP.

Andhra Pradesh has been a Congress citadel for many decades but its inability to meet the aspirations of the people has resulted in the emergence of many other regional parties like the Telugu Desam, TRS and now PRP. Chiru's dreams of doing an “NTR” did not happen. Insiders point out that had NTR been given a Rajya Sabha ticket then, he would not have formed the Telugu Desam party. In changed circumstances, the same Congress now wishes that Chiru should merge his PRP with the Congress.

The TDP is already talking of a mid-term poll but the Congress should be careful in dealing with the instability. The opposition is still divided and humiliated and has not been able to raise its head. It is perhaps one way of finishing the opposition by evolving a merger strategy wherever possible. Earlier, there was also talk of the TRS merging with the Congress if a separate Telengana was agreed. The Congress has to tread carefully as the Telengana issue has not disappeared and may reappear after the Sri Krishna Commission report. Making a common strategy with like-minded parties and mobilising support from these sub-regional parties is indeed a good tactics. Simultaneously tackling Congressmen like Jagan is also important. The Congress has to back a dynamic leader to lead the party and the government. (IPA Service)