UPA chief Sonia Gandhi had no answer either when she was asked how the bill would be passed except to say that they would try.

The Women's Reservation Bill has been a controversial political issue triggering heated debates in Parliament and outside for the past 13 years. It is a long story since the then Prime Minister Deve Gowda introduced it in 1996 in Parliament. Since then, a solution has eluded it. It was re-introduced in June 1998 and again in November 1999 but nothing happened. In 2004, the UPA made it a part of its common Minimum programme but opposition from SP, RJD and JD (U) stalled it. To save face, the Government just introduced the bill in the Rajya Sabha in 2008 and referred it to a standing committee headed by Nachiappan. In 2009, the Congress party made an election promise. While the supporters of the bill try to sell it as a political stunt to woo women voters, its opponents continue to stall it by describing it as an elitist measure

Having supported the candidature of a woman to preside over the Rashtrapathi Bhavan, and a woman to preside over Lok Sabha (both seen as mere tokenism) the UPA is determined to enact the Women's Reservation Bill in its second term. However, things are not as simple as it seems. There are some riders. The Bill is a Constitutional Amendment Bill and needs a two-thirds majority in both the Houses for its passage. In Lok Sabha where the government has a clear majority, it needs the support of 364 MPs. In Rajya Sabha, the UPA needs the support of 153 MPs, but the UPA is short of a majority in the Upper House. Moreover, the Bill must also be ratified by legislatures of at least 50 per cent of the states (14 states).

Despite the good intentions of the government, it is unlikely that the bill will see a smooth passage. The life of the Nachiappan committee has ended and a new committee needs to be constituted. Then it has to be brought to the Rajya Sabha where the UPA has no majority. Parties like the like RJD, SP and BSP opposing the measure together have 32 MPs in the Rajya Sabha. The JD(U) with seven MPs is also strongly opposed to it. In this situation, the bill could be passed only if the main opposition party BJP agrees to let the UPA walk away with the credit for getting the historic bill passed. The Congress (70) and the BJP (53) together have 123 members which is at the half way mark in the 245- member Rajya Sabha. Only after that will the bill come to the Lok Sabha where the UPA has a majority.

There are not many options before the Government. Nachiappan, who was heading the standing committee, is of the view that there are only two options before the committee. The first is to seek one third reservation within the existing strength of Parliament and the second is to increase the strength of Parliament.

Why is there so much resistance to women's reservation when women account for half the country's population? Despite active participation by women during the freedom struggle, the number of women reaching Parliament has remained dismal. It has oscillated between 4 per cent in the First Lok Sabha in 1952 to about 10 per cent in 2009. In 2004 polls, only 44 were elected which provoked the Election Commission to write to political parties to give tickets to more women candidates.

The resistance from the male members of Parliament is quite strong cutting across party lines. Even within the Congress and the BJP, opinion is divided. They are apprehensive that their chances of getting elected to Parliament and legislatures would be marred if one third seats are reserved for women.

Secondly, leaders like Lalu Yadav and Sharad Yadav think that this will provide opportunity for elitist women who belong to influential families denying the benefit to women from rural background and lower castes.

While most of these parties are shedding crocodile tears, they don't seem to practice what they preach. Nothing prevents them from giving tickets to more women. However, out of a total of 556 women candidates in 2009 polls, the Congress fielded 40 women and the BJP, 43. The left parties, which shout the most for women's reservation, fielded less than five per cent. Had the parties led by women like the AIADMK, Trinamool Congress, BSP and the Congress given one-third tickets for women, the story would have been different. However, the excuse was the winnability of the women candidates. The composition of the 15th Lok Sabha has also proved that most women get tickets because of their influential political family background.

The question is: will a mere increase in the number of women in Parliament and legislatures ensure a change in the mindset? In the previous Lok Sabha, 14 per cent of women MPs had criminal records. In terms of attendance, women fare better than men, and almost 90 per cent of them are well educated. Will women get their due for raising the issues pertaining to women and fight for their cause? The record shows that they do not get much time to speak in Parliament.

The 15th Lok Sabha may have produced 58 women MPs. But when it comes to making them minister, the number has decreased than the previous Cabinet: just nine women as compared to 10 last time. However, what is heartening for the fair sex is that the Prime Minister has doubled the number of cabinet ministers to four.

Those women who are dreaming of reaching Parliament under the quota may have to wait longer unless they agree to 15 or 20 per cent reservation. There is a long way to go for the fair sex to get their due. Meanwhile, smart women should try to reach the top on their own without any quota. (IPA Service)