The Congress, enjoying its political windfall, leads UPA-II with a sense of comfort for better governance and for policy-making though it may not find its allies on the same wave-length on all issues. Whatever the underlying strength of the formation, a rough sail may be ahead.

There have been eruptions at the state level too, the noisy regional players as in UP and Bihar brought down to earth with new concerns for their own political future. The Left is threatened in what have been historically its citadels. There were notable gains for the Congress in North while the South also contributed to its tally but the oldest national party is not making headway in Karnataka, lost to BJP, or Tamil Nadu with its legacy of separatism fostered by the Dravidian parties claiming a special status.

Congress has for long been playing second fiddle to Mr. Karunanidhi's DMK or Ms. Jayalalithaa's AIADMK. both buttressed by more virulent forces of linguistic chauvinism which had been making common cause with the terror outfit LTTE in its demand for a Tamil 'Eelam' in Sri Lanka. The fate of Sri Lanka Tamils will continue to dominate politics in Tamil Nadu for a long time to come, given the aggressive Sinhalese stance and with the credibility of the Rajapakse Government in Colombo guaranteeing equal rights for Tamils in grave doubt. It is No.1 issue for competitive championing for Tamil parties.

From all indications, there are changing equations in the Congress-DMK relations in the aftermath of the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. The DMK supremo wants to be the arbiter, a status he enjoyed in the first five-year term of UPA, but political compulsions and age are driving him in other directions. Denied the four Cabinet berths he was insisting on, Mr. Karunanidhi is sullen and wants to assert himself in various ways vis-a-vis the Centre. His central concern has been to safeguard his own family's hold on Tamil Nadu's destiny.

National-level developments in the aftermath of the new Government taking office may have obscured the subtle moves of the DMK supremo Mr M Karunanidhi not only establishing his family hold on power by designating his younger son and Minister of Public Works Mr M K Stalin as Deputy Chief Minister as his potential successor to lead DMK but also emitting strong signals of assertion of state autonomy. He has urged greater powers to be left to States and a substantial rise in the devolution of central taxes to 50 per cent from the present 30.5 per cent.

Mr. Karunanidhi's anxiety was to find family berths for his elder son Mr. Azhagiri, DMK's southern satrap, elected to Lok Sabha for the first time, as also his daughter, by the second wife, Miss. Kanimozhi, already a Rajya Sabha MP, besides his other nominees at the Cabinet and Minister of State levels. With not more than three Cabinet positions including one earmarked for his grand nephew Mr. Dayanidhi Maran, it had become a domestic problem for him to sort out and finally Miss Kanimozhi announced she was not in the race for Ministerships.

Before entering his 86th birthday, Mr. Karunanidhi virtually anointed Mr. Stalin as his successor by designating him as Deputy Chief Minister and entrusted him with Industry and other key portfolios the Chief Minister had held himself. This is the first time that such a post has been created in Tamil Nadu. This change has also been made, be it noted, before DMK, if at all, is compelled to provide some berths for Congressmen. With only 96 members in the 234-member Assembly, DMK has been running a minority government with the support from outside of Congress (36 members). Though Mr. Karunanidhi has kept the Congress at bay thus far, the demand for a share in power has been renewed reportedly through AICC.

Left to himself, the DMK leader would like his party to last its term without a coalition and try to gain absolute control in the next state elections. His bargaining power with the Congress at the Centre not being the same, his partymen have started sounded critical in both Houses of Parliament on issues like disinvestment and the rights of Tamils in Sri Lanka where they feel the Centre had not acted tough.

Surprisingly, DMK maintained a lead in a large number of assembly constituencies which could have induced Mr. Karunanidhi to think of a snap poll which is, however, unlikely. A frustrated Ms. Jayalalithaa, who had expected a sweeping victory after the total loss in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, is trying hard to keep the morale of her partymen steady, even though they ended up with only 9 seats against DMK's 18. The next political battle will be in 2011 for the Assembly. DMK will have to confront not only Ms. Jayalalithaa's AIADMK but also the formidable new force, actor Capt. Vijayakanth's DMDK which polled more than 10 per cent of votes cast with its Lok Sabha candidates in nine constituencies securing more than one lakh votes.

Meanwhile, DMK is using its power to enlarge its basket of welfare schemes and making voter-friendly gestures. The pay scales for government employees were revised on June 1 with a 30 per cent increase in salaries and doubling of allowances which would result in additional recurring expenditure of over Rs.5155 crores per annum. Almost double that amount would be needed for payment of arrears with benefit given from January 1, 2007.The state's finances would come under severe strain. No wonder this was at the back of the mind of the Chief Minister in impressing upon the 13th Finance Commission to deliver a generous devolution award for the next five years (2010-15).

A traditionally well-administered state from the days of the Congress raj when the industrial foundations were laid, Tamil Nadu has been attracting investors, domestic and foreign. With a large urban mass, the state is also ahead in literacy and other social indicators. It pioneered reservations for all classes other than the “forward” (read Brahmins mostly) communities. With large central flows and private investments financing development, DMK's populism and welfare measures have scaled new heights in recent years for its power entrenchment.(IPA)