Union home minister Amit Shah, who started running the show there even before it was formally placed under President’s rule, is against further extension of the arrangement, though constitutionally that is possible, subject to fulfilment of prescribed conditions and justifying why the ground realities warrant the drastic step.

The home minister is actively pursuing his political objective over the last three weeks. He himself and his ministry officials have already held several meetings with stakeholders in New Delhi, Guwahati and Manipur. N Biren Singh, who headed the BJP-led Manipur ministry before his unavoidable resignation on February 9, 2025, has expectedly resurfaced. Over the past six weeks, Biren met Shah twice — on Monday, December 15, 2025 and on Friday, January 16 and knowledgeable quarters described the exercise as an attempt to see how congenial conditions could be created and complications sorted out before legislative and political actions are firmed up for putting in place a popular ministry.

Sources say there is no doubt that the Union government and the BJP top brass are against a second extension of President’s rule. They are satisfied that there has been a perceptible improvement in the law and order situation, that return of internally displaced persons (IDPs) to their homes has at last gathered momentum [The number of IDPs peaked to over 60,000 as ethnic violence, which erupted on May 3, 2023, peaked and panic had gripped the state ; now the number has dropped to around 50,000]. Also, recovery of looted arms and ammunition has picked up with intensification of search operations. And yet, the Centre is unable to come to a conclusion on termination of President’s rule. Despite improvement, the law and order situation remains delicate, sensitive as recent incidents have shown. That’s the reading of regular Manipur watchers.

The killing of a Meitei man on January 21, Wednesday triggered fresh tensions and protests. The Meitei man had gone to visit his Kuki-Zo wife’s home in Kuki-Zo majority Churachandpur district. He was allegedly kidnapped with her wife and killed by armed assailants. Reports from Imphal suggested that the wife had been thrown out of the vehicle before the husband was murdered. Mayanglambam Rishikanta Singh, the victim aged 30 plus, was from the Meitei majority district of Kakching. He was living at his wife’s place since the third week of December after returning from Nepal where, as reports indicated, was working under a contractor. The wife belonged to the Chin Kuki tribe.

Leading Meitei civil society organizations (CSOs) – the Coordination Committee on Manipur Integrity and Meitei Heritage Society have condemned the incident and ascribed it to the failure of the security establishment despite massive deployment. The role of two militant groups has come under the scanner in this content. They are the United Kuki national Army (UKNA), which is not part of the tripartite Suspension of Operations (SoS) agreement and the Kuki National Organisation (KNO), which is party to the SoS accord. Some reports suggested that the couple had obtained permission from KNO but the it flatly denied any knowledge of the couple’s visit as also having any role in the incident.

Manipur watchers told this correspondent that while the sentiment of the Meitei CSOs is a pointer to their lack of confidence in the administration the reaction of the Union government is a clear proof that the Churachandpur district incident has upset them. Social media intermediaries, such as YouTube, Meta and Google were asked on Thursday, January 22, to take down the viral video of the January 21 killing by the ministry of electronics and information technology (MeitY) on a specific request from the home ministry which was apprehensive that continued circulation of the video may disturb public order. MeitY clarified that the order had been issued under section 69 A of the Information Technology Act, 2000 read with rules of 2009 which lay down safeguards and procedures for blocking.

The state administration’s apprehensions about adverse public reactions are compelling it to take the help of Union government agencies even for incidents of bomb blasts causing injuries and which involve borders between a Kuki majority district and a Meitei majority one. The Manipur government handed over the investigation of two bomb blasts in the Meitei-majority Bishnupur district to the National Investigation Agency. The blasts, in which two people including a woman were hurt, occurred on January 5. The blast site was near Bishnupur’s border with Churachandpur.

Howsoever keen the Centre may be on having a popular ministry before the extended tenure of President’s rule expires on February 12, it cannot ignore the fact its efforts to persuade the Kuki-Zo leadership to give up their demand for a separate administrative set-up with a legislature and participate in the new ministry have not elicited a positive response from them. The only change in their stance, if at all it can be treated as such, is that they may be willing to consider participation only if the Centre and the state government give them a written commitment to support a negotiated political settlement for a Union Territory with legislature, as admissible under the Constitution.

The commitment must be executed in a time-bound manner, certainly within the current Assembly tenure which expires in February 2027. This decision was made at a meeting in Guwahati on Tuesday, January 13. The meeting was attended by representatives of militant outfits United People’s Front and KNO which are part of the SoO Group, five MLAs and two nominees of the Kuki-Zo Council. In the 60-member House, there are 10 kuki-Zo MLAs, of whom seven belong to BJP and their participation is crucial. A key question is : Can these MLAs defy KZC ? (IPA Service)