During the recent Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) election in Mumbai, the richest corporation l of India, we have already seen that NCP (Ajit Pawar) had contested on its own breaking the Mahayuti rank, and joined hands with NCP (Sharad Pawar) in Pune. The political drift was obvious. It had softened the respective stance of both the splinter groups of the former NCP. Now after death of Ajit Pawar, several scenario has emerged regarding the fate of the NCP (Ajit Pawar), one of them is that many of the leaders from his party may return to the NCP (Sharad Pawar) camp, and it is one of the possibility that we can see a united NCP again, which was broken by Ajit Pawar in 2023. He then broke from his uncle’s NCP and joined a new governing coalition of BJP-Shiv Sena (Shinde) and became deputy chief minister of the state.

Since NCP (Sharad Pawar) naturally retains moral authority, national stature, and soft power, many of the NCP (Ajit Pawar) camp will be attracted towards it in the absence of a leader having strong administrative grip on the party. Ajit Pawar himself joined hands with NCP (Sharad Pawar) in Pune in the municipal corporation elections, therefore doing the same thing by other party member is not ruled out.

Nevertheless, if NCP (Ajit Pawar) survives as a political party, it will survive as only a coalition broker party, or a platform for regional leaders, without a strong leader like Ajit Pawar. The party will be considerably weakened and there will be poaching activity from other political parties like BJP and Shiv Sena (Shinde). There is a crucial phase before the leader of the NCP (Ajit Pawar) to decide if they need to remain as a party and in the Mahayuti coalition. Many of them will drift to BJP, or realign locally with Congress Shiv Sena factions. Still, many would like merger of the both NCP factions to become a united NCP again. All these means the NCP (Ajit Pawar) rank and file are going to be like feeder poor for parties and alliances, or a week political party if it survives, or both.

BJP may gain in strongholds of Ajit Pawar in his absence, especially in western Maharashtra through leaders who they would like to co-opt, in urban or semi urban belts as the recent elections of corporations and municipal bodies indicate, and in this process may gain greater control over the institutions, resources, and politics. However, the problem with the BJP is that it has reached its own limits. Communal politics can’t have advantage where caste arithmetic, resistance to it in rural cooperative networks, and its dependence on allies for its cultural legitimacy is are key factors. All these indicate, though BJP will remain a dominant political party in the state, it will not be invincible, if it does not take care of the NCP (Ajit Pawar) rank and file. They will like to have the party leaders with Mahayuti.

Shiv Sena (Shinde) has emerged stronger in the recent unban bodies elections. In absence of Ajit Pawar, it would like to strengthen its relations with NCP (Ajit Pawar) leader, because it will be important for them in post-Ajit Pawar identity based politics. Nevertheless, Shiv Sena (Shinde) is fragile without the support of BJP, though they have administrative experience. They are in transactional politics for quite some time, so we can expect them to adopt some give and take strategy.

As for the INDIA bloc, if they play their cards well, they may gain much in the new phase of political realignments in the state. Shiv Sena (UBT) has stronger emotional connect, and has a strong urban Marathi middle-class appeal. It is in better position to take advantage of the new political churning. Both the Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (Sharad Pawar) have contested together in the recent election of municipal corporations. They may emerge stronger in the state politics in the current scenario.

During the municipal corporations, Congress parted ways and contested on their own breaking the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which is INDIA bloc at national level. INDIA bloc has disintegrated and all the three political parties – Shiv Sena (UBT), NCP (Sharad Pawar), and Congress had to suffer electoral setbacks.

Congress is slowly on the path of revival in the state. It was NCP (Ajit Pawar) who chiefly damaged its prospects is several areas of Maharashtra, mainly in the western Maharashtra. The death of Ajit Pawar has created a space for expansion of Congress too, apart from the expansion of NCP (Sharad Pawar). Though the Congress has no chance to emerge as dominant force, but it may witness some alliance based revival in Maratha and OBC politics of the state.

Maharashtra is set to undergo the biggest shift in politics in the recent times, which will be less about the single leader dominance but more about regional bargaining, social and political identities, and alliances. The entire politics will be coalition constrained, and no one leader will be able to fill the vacuum created by the death of Ajit Pawar. Maratha and OBC politics will need to be recalibrated across the state.

Pawar’s politics in Maharashtra is at a crossroad. Sharad Pawar is still most respectable among their supporters, but then there are three younger leaders – Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule, Ajit Pawar’s wife, or his sons Parth Pawar and Jay Pawar. Who will now run NCP (Ajit Pawar) and how – is buried in the future, along with the political reconfiguration of the Maharashtra politics. (IPA Service)