In Assam, BJP got 4.6 per cent more votes in 2026 compared to 2021 election, however, its ally AGP lost 1.44 per cent of its support base and BPR could gain only 0.34 per cent. BJP’s gain was not account of the loss of INDIA bloc. Congress increased its vote share by 0.17 per cent. CPI (M) and CPI(ML)L lost 0.37 and 0.01 per cent respectively. TMC also gained 0.89 per cent. It means the gain of BJP is chiefly on account of loss of AIUDF which lost 3.83 per cent of its votes share. It means INDIA bloc is also emerging stronger in the state as the BJP is – which may lead to even closer contest between them in the forthcoming 2029 Lok Sabha elections.

NDA won 102 out of 126 Vidhan Sabha constituency. BJP with swing of 4.6 per cent of votes was able to win 22 seats more than 2021 election, to reach its total at 82. It was possible due to closer contests. Such a situation was created by the BJP through delimitation of constituency in Assam in 2023. There was no SIR in Assam in 2026.

In the Upper and North Assam regions, the number of seats was increased from 42 to 43. At that time BJP had won 30 seats and AGP 6. The constituencies were carved out very cleverly in favour of BJP. It is due to this reason NDA could win 41 seats this time compared to 36 in 2021. NDA won all 6 seats in Tribal and Hill Belt, which were increased from 5 to 6 in 2023 delimitation. NDA won 14 seats in Bodoland where seats were increased from 11 to 15 and 5 in Kamrup Metropolitan where seats were increased from 4 to 5. The only two regions where seats were reduced were Central and Lower Assam, where seats were reduced to 44 from 49 and Barak Valley where seats were reduced from 15 to 13. In these two regions NDA was able to increase its seat from 16 to 27, and from 6 to 9 respectively. INDIA bloc, therefore, will have to be more careful during the delimitation of entire country which is due after 2027 Census.

In case of West Bengal, SIR has adversely affected the TMC’s prospect. BJP gained 7.88 per cent more votes compared to 2021, and TMC lost 7.22 per cent. It resulted into increase of 130 seats for BJP, and 135 seats loss to TMC. BJP was able to bag 45.85 per cent of votes while TMC got 40.8 per cent. The difference between the two is about 5 per cent. CPI(M) was able to increase its seat by 1, and Congress by 2. It has increased the prospect of INDIA bloc unity in the future election, especially in the Lok Sabha election 2029, which will see very close contests between NDA and INDIA bloc, because margin of votes between the TMC and the BJP is very thin.

What contributed greatly to the BJP’s win is SIR deletions, because the exercise led to the removal of about 91 lakh names, which is roughly 12 per cent of electorate. Of the deleted names, 60 lakhs were classified as deceased, while 27 lakhs remained pending or under scrutiny, out of which only a small number were cleared by the Tribunals before the voting, preventing them to cast their votes. BJP called the SIR a necessary clean-up of the electoral roll by removing illegal or duplicate entries.

There were 169 constituencies with over 25,000 deletions. TMC had won 128 of these seats in 2021, and BJP 41. In 2026, TMC could win only 63 and BJP won 104 seats. Congress was able to win 2 seats. In the remaining 124 seats where deletions were less than 25,000, BJP had won 36 seats in 2021, but now it won 108 seats. Logical discrepancy deletions were highest in 38 constituencies, where TMC had won 34 seats in 2021, but could win only 22 seats this time.

187 constituencies saw deletion of 5000 electors out of which BJP won 119. In as many as 47 seats among these had bigger deletion than the winning margins, and the BJP won such 28 seats among them.

These data are significant because, ECI intends to complete SIR process in entire country before the next phase of election. INDIA bloc parties will have to be more careful to prevent unfair deletion of voters as seen in West Bengal.

To counter the surge in BJP’s elector support base, INDIA bloc will have to devise more convincing counter political narrative to the narrative being pushed by the BJP led by PM Narendra Modi. The must drive home the importance of democracy, secularism, and federalism to the people of the country as against the Hindutva of BJP. (IPA Service)