On the night of July 30, 2026, President Donald Trump took to Truth Social with characteristic bravado. "Today, the Board of Peace reached a HISTORIC agreement for the COMPLETE DISARMAMENT of Hamas and all other armed groups in Gaza. This is a monumental step toward lasting PEACE and SECURITY," he wrote. It was framed as the long-delayed second act of the ceasefire he brokered in October 2025, and as vindication of his 20-point Gaza peace plan.

Within hours, the celebratory mood curdled. Hamas negotiators had indeed signed a disarmament framework with the US-led Board of Peace in El-Alamein, Egypt - the first time the group has ever put its signature on any agreement to give up its weapons.

But Netanyahu's office almost immediately issued a statement saying the Board of Peace's 15-point disarmament proposal did not meet Israel's demands for Gaza's complete demilitarisation, leaving the path forward murky. An Israeli official was blunter still, telling reporters that despite "various publications" reporting diplomatic progress, there would be no withdrawal from Israel's current positions before "the genuine disarmament of Hamas."

The Board of Peace - a Trump-chaired body that gathered 40 countries at its inauguration in February, including Israel and Arab states but no Palestinian representatives - says the agreement is essentially a roadmap for implementing the ceasefire deal struck last October. The board called it "a historic breakthrough," saying that for the first time Hamas has committed to an actionable plan for relinquishing all its weapons, to be followed by Israeli withdrawal.

Under the plan, Hamas would gradually hand over its weapons over an eight-month period to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, a Board of Peace-overseen panel of Palestinian technocrats, with police weapons transferred first and personal weapons surrendered last.

As disarmament is completed, Israeli forces are to withdraw, with an International Stabilisation Force working alongside a new Palestinian police force to secure Gaza. Trump described a Palestinian government that would "work closely with the Board of Peace to help the Palestinian people," even as regional officials noted that the Palestinian Authority still "needs to carry out reforms before we consider integrating them."

Crucially, the geography is contested. The deal envisions the IDF immediately returning to the "Yellow Line" that divided Gaza roughly into eastern and western halves - but Netanyahu had earlier ordered the army to take over 70 percent of the Strip, in violation of the original ceasefire, leaving Israel in control of 53 percent of the enclave at the time.

Israel has since expanded its footprint to over 60 percent, a violation the Board of Peace appears to have let slide as it worked to coax Hamas into accepting the disarmament terms. Nickolay Mladenov, the Board's high representative for Gaza, captured the fragility of the moment: "What the agreement says matters. What happens next matters even more. Implementation and verification have to be real. Withdrawal must move in lockstep with decommissioning."

For Israel's prime minister, the deal is less a diplomatic gift than a political trap. A source told the Times of Israel the agreement was actually inked by negotiators from Hamas, the Board of Peace, and mediators Egypt, Qatar and Turkey - with Israel effectively presented a fait accompli. Netanyahu's government had raised objections to Board of Peace envoy Tony Blair, insisting there would be "no IDF withdrawal from the Yellow Line before Hamas is disarmed and the Strip is fully demilitarised."

The domestic backlash in Israel was swift. Former military chief and Netanyahu rival Gadi Eisenkot said "Once again, Israeli citizens are learning about a fateful agreement from foreign publications, and the outrageous gap between Netanyahu's promises and reality is further exposed," accusing the prime minister of capitulating "without achieving the war's objectives."

Analysts note that Netanyahu's electoral position makes any visible concession untenable ahead of elections due on October 27, while his far-right coalition partners have long threatened to bolt if the war ends without Hamas's total destruction.

For Hamas, the calculation is equally fraught. Senior official Ghazi Hamad confirmed to CNN that the group has agreed to surrender its weapons, contingent on the deployment of an International Stabilisation Force. Yet, the group has resisted actually standing down in practice.

Hamas has gradually redeployed its own security forces into Gaza's streets since the ceasefire began, killing more than 30 people it labelled members of "a gang," prompting the US military's CENTCOM to publicly demand Hamas "immediately suspend violence and shooting at innocent Palestinian civilians" and disarm "without delay."

Palestinians themselves are torn between hope and dread. A displaced teacher in northern Gaza, Mohammed Hamdouna, said: "Finally, the world's longest nightmare will end," though he added he was "afraid to dream or believe it until the crossings are opened and aid and temporary shelters begin to enter Gaza."

Others describe a climate of fear under Hamas's continued street presence, with one activist alleging the group has been "punishing families" accused of collaboration, executing people without trial "in front of people's eyes." This tension - a population desperate for the war to end but wary of trading Israeli bombardment for Hamas intimidation - will shape whether the "roadmap" survives contact with reality on the ground.

Diplomatically, the deal was carefully choreographed with regional buy-in. Board of Peace officials said they had consulted "all the countries of the region - Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the Emirates, and others," describing implementation as "a regional effort." European reaction has been measured optimism: EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called the proposed deal, if fully implemented, "a constructive step," while UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy's successor, Ed Miliband, welcomed the disarmament announcement and urged full implementation of the 20-point plan, including an Israeli withdrawal and unrestricted humanitarian access.

Yet, the surrounding security picture undercuts any sense of regional calm. On the same day the Gaza deal was announced, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun condemned explosions at Beaufort Castle in southern Lebanon as a "highly dangerous escalation" threatening talks in Rome on the Israel-Lebanon-US security framework - a reminder that Gaza is only one front in a wider, still-smouldering conflict system stretching from Beirut to Tehran.

For the region, the test is whether Arab states - Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE - can convert their cautious backing of the Board of Peace into a durable governance and reconstruction structure for Gaza, filling the vacuum if Hamas's weapons genuinely leave the streets.

That reconstruction effort, reportedly worth billions of dollars, remains stalled pending the disarmament dispute. Absent real implementation, the likeliest outcome is not lasting peace but another fragile pause - one more chapter in a conflict that has cycled through ceasefires, breakdowns and new wars for years, with Gaza's two million residents left to gauge, once again, whether this promise of an ending is real. (IPA Service)