It is 18 months since Obama took over as the US President but he is still embroiled in domestic, economic as well as international affairs. Afghanistan and Iraq continue to be problems and Obama has assured that the American troops will begin their withdrawal from Afghanistan in July 2011. The choice is difficult for him - either slow the withdrawal of forces or risk an Afghanistan where Taliban has a significant role.

Obama needs to succeed in his Af-Pak strategy to show results. His Nobel peace prize will remind him that. The US congress is not willing to spend more money on sending more troops to Afghanistan. There are more US troops in Afghanistan (92000) than in Iraq (85000.) Last week's hearings on Capitol Hill revealed deep concerns and doubts over Pentagon assurances of progress. The operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have reached a whopping sum of $ 1 trillion under war funding. Americans are worried about two critical questions - Whether the nine year old war is worth fighting and second whether it can be won. With the answers to both remaining uncertain, support for the war is dropping gradually.

To add to the problems, despite more US troops being deployed in Afghanistan, there is not much improvement as crucial areas still remain under the Taliban influence. Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai is upset with the western powers and has threatened that he might be forced to join Taliban because of the American pressure to deliver good governance. Karzai has become weaker after the elections which had isolated him more than ever.

Right now Pakistan has the upper hand .The US has made it clear to India that it needs full the cooperation of Pakistan to succeed in Afghanistan. The US also needs Pakistan to fight Al Qaeda. Obama himself had spoken about this to both Indian and Pakistani leaders in his meetings with them. That is why the US is keen that India and Pakistan resume dialogue which was interrupted by the 26/11 Mumbai terror attack. Afghanistan was discussed during the Indo-US bilateral talks in November 2009 when Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh visited Washington as Obama's first state guest. Since then on various occasions, it has been stressed by the American leaders. The US-Pak strategic dialogue and Indo-US strategic dialogue held recently in Washington were occasions when Afghanistan was discussed seriously. The US feels that if Pakistan has to fully concentrate on its western side to deal with militancy, it has to have reduced tensions on the Kashmir border.

It is in India's interests to have a peaceful Afghanistan. Pakistan also would like some peace in its neighboring country. New Delhi has played the role of a soft power by helping in rebuilding Afghanistan. It has built schools, hospitals and provided various other infrastructure facilities. While the US has recognized India's contribution, Pakistan sees India as a meddler and wants India to be kept out. Pak feels that New Delhi had instigated problems in Baluchistan.

New Delhi, on its part, would like its concerns taken into account in Afghanistan strategy. It does not believe in “Good Taliban” and “Bad Taliban”, a concept being floated by the US. It fears any Afghan plan to broker a deal with the Taliban could undermine India's security and give more influence to Pakistan .The Obama administration is grappling with how to balance India's role in Afghanistan without annoying Pakistan.

Both India and Pakistan are moving towards engagement in the past few months after the collapse of peace talks after 26/11 Mumbai terror attack. The Foreign ministers of the two countries and foreign secretary level dialogues had taken off. The next Foreign ministers' meeting is scheduled in Islamabad next month. Before that there is a second round of Foreign Secretary level talks scheduled this week. The Home Ministers of India and Pak are going to meet next month on the sidelines of SAARC. Both the countries are showing keenness to continue the dialogue and confidence building measures. However, it is not that easy to quicken the pace in view of the weak civilian government in Pakistan and a coalition government in India. The problem for Singh is that there is no way he can be seen as ceding ground on Kashmir and also on the 26/11 accused. Also the huge arms package and economic package given to Pakistan in the Obama regime triggers apprehensions in New Delhi and it has time and again pointed out that the money may be siphoned off to the terrorists.

India is going into these talks with the confidence and approach that all outstanding issues, including Jammu and Kashmir, will be discussed to reduce trust deficit between the two countries even if they are modest.

For the moment, Pakistan has the upper hand and it is willing to play the broker provided it gets its price — which means more American aid and arms besides curtailing India's role in Afghanistan.

The stakes in Afghanistan are enormous for various players including preventing another 9/11, any conflict in South Asia, and the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, and the future of NATO. To succeed, President Obama will have to invest not just more American and NATO troops, but also his political skills. (IPA Service)