The contest is significant because women constitute 6.09 crore — or 45.46% — of UP's electorate, according to the latest electoral roll.

Samajwadi Party national President Akhilesh Yadav has made a major move by promising Rs 40,000 a year to every woman, if the SP returns to power.

The party is also highlighting what it says was its enviable record on women's welfare during its previous government.

The Rs 40,000 promise is particularly important politically because it tries to give the SP a direct benefit message, that can compete with the BJP's welfare politics.

The BJP's advantage is that it already has a substantial record of schemes reaching women and households.

The Yogi government is now emphasising implementation of its women-centric commitments and has also announced free bus travel for elderly women.

The BJP is also reportedly considering a cash-assistance scheme for economically weaker sections of women, including women from poorer and BPL households.

These developments could change UP politics during the forthcoming assembly polls.

Interestingly, women's voting behaviour does not necessarily follow the traditional caste arithmetic. Women are spread across Yadav, non-Yadav OBC, Dalit, Brahmin, Muslim and other communities. Recent elections have demonstrated that women's participation can cut across these traditional political divisions.

So, the battle is on where BJP has claimed that they have delivered welfare and security.
On the other hand, Samajwadi Party is working on the formula wherein they would put more money directly into women's hands and revive the old welfare model.

This could be particularly important for the SP because it needs to expand beyond its traditional Yadav-Muslim base. Winning even a modest additional share of women from non-Yadav OBC and Dalit communities could make a substantial difference in closely-fought constituencies.

The bigger political battle would see the 2027 UP contest increasingly developing a fight, where BJP's non-Yadav OBC/Dalit coalition collides against SP's PDA strategy.

This election will also see welfare, cash transfers, safety, mobility and household economics as important determinants of electoral outcome.

Akhilesh Yadav has already described 2027 as essentially a direct SP-BJP contest, while the BJP is trying to prevent the SP from expanding its 2024 Lok Sabha gains into the Assembly election.

The women's vote could become the “swing constituency” of the 2027 election. Neither party can assume that women will automatically vote along caste or family lines. The crucial question will be which party succeeds in converting welfare promises into personal trust among women voters. (IPA Service)