The relevant videos, which have gone viral in the past one week, do not give the exact date on which he had spoken on the subject, but in most of the videos 1989 is mentioned as the year. In a few videos a 1994 speech by him is also mentioned. In any case, the address being referred to is well over 30 years old.

The charges Vajpayee had levelled then against the government of the day have found an echo in the media reports on the prevailing sugar market situation. Prices of the sweetener has over the past three weeks have ruled between Rs 65 and 68 a kg, rising from about Rs 46-48 a kg early this month. Traders spoke about the chances of further uptrend if the authorities did not intervene without further loss of time. There is strong reason to believe that the market had indications and based on which the trade made “intelligent guesses” that cane production for the 2025-26 sugar season (October-September) would drop to around 306 lakh tonnes (lt), contrasting with the initial estimate of 345 lt. The falling trend has been apparent: from 359 lt in 2021-22 to 320 lt in 2023-24. There was no noticeable improvement in the 2024-25 season [firm estimate is not immediately available].

The festive season is knocking at the door and the demand for sugar peaks gradually between September and November. Interestingly, on July 17, the two key industry outfits – Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd (NFCSF) – sought to assure the authorities and trade that domestic consumption requirements would be comfortably met. If the statements of top ISMA and NFCSF office-bearers are read between the lines, it is safe to suggest that they had some evidence of “panic buying and speculative trading in the domestic sugar market” from mid-July and which gathered momentum from the first week of August.

Speculative behavior of a section of the trade created a misleading impression about tightness and bulk buyers, who would usually procure the sweetener “just-in-time” started stocking six-eight weeks’ supply in advance. Which meant that the quantities that should under normal circumstances have been in circulation found their way in the godowns. A factor that prevented an alarming situation is that because of unfavourable international price parity, the mill industry was not enthusiastic about exporting to the quota level of 20 lakh tonnes. Only eight lakh tonnes were exported and New Delhi banned exports from May 13 to September 30.

Political parties have blamed generous diversion for ethanol production which the mill industry and the authorities have denied. They have contended that only 290 crore litres, out of the total of 1,200 crore litres of ethanol, came from sugar during the current sugar / ethanol year. The highest priority remains on sugar for the domestic consumers, they asserted.

Taking note of the public outcry and political parties’ outbursts, New Delhi considered in the third week of this month import of raw sugar. In two-three days thereafter, decision to import 10 lt of raw sugar duty-free was made. India, world’s largest consumer of sugar, will be importing the commodity after almost a decade. The preferred source, taking into the global supply supply-demand scenario, is most likely to be Brazil, shipments wherefrom may require some 40 days to reach Indian shores, provided there is no congestion at that end.

A related decision already made is to start cane crushing at least 15 days before the usual schedule in October in Tamil Nadu and Karnakata and thereby ensure production of about 10 lt of sugar which, therefore, would mean an extra availability of five lakh-tonnes as the output of sugar under the usual cane crushing schedule varies between four and five lt. The third step taken relates to stockholding limit reduction and calibrated releases before the festive days kick in.

Does the situation as it has evolved and forced domestic consumers to buy sugar at exorbitant prices bear out Vajpayee’s over 30-year-old blistering attack against the then regime for the abnormal surge in sugar prices. It won’t be an exaggeration to suggest that what the veteran BJP leader had then said is valid for the current ground reality.

The Union food and civil supplies ministry headed by Prahlad Joshi, who was recently given additional charge of the Education portfolio, failed to effectively monitor the supply prospects.

A reliable picture about cane production and progress of crushing should have emerged if effective inter-ministerial coordination [between agriculture and food & civil supplies ministries] was ensured by the PMO, which now have two principal secretaries to the Prime Minster against the traditional one [Shaktikanta Das, former RBI governor, was made principal secretary number two, soon after US President Donald Trump began his tariff offensive more than a year ago].

Lowering of stock holding limits and, if needed, de-hoarding operations by states would have curbed speculative buying. Prices would not then have surged to punitive levels, informed sources told this correspondent. (IPA Service)