There are, at present, no visible signs of any anti-incumbency wave in the state although, like in other states, the people of Himachal are also facing numerous problems. The Congress, the state's main opposition party, is in disarray and virtually in hibernation. Its leaders are busy more in quarrelling with each other than organizing the people for raising their voice against government's lapses. The state BJP has also been a divided house. But to create a conducive environment for Dhumal, the party's central leadership withdrew his opponents like party stalwart former Chief Minister Shanta Kumar and the prominent dissident Minister J.P.Nada from the state to the Centre by giving them key organizational positions.

There is no education like adversity. But Himachal's Congress leaders have not learnt any lesson from Disraeli's advice. Although the rivalry between the former Chief Minister -presently Union Steel Minister- Virbhadra Singh and the CLP leader Vidya Stokes is not of recent origin, the party's on-going organizational elections have further sharpened it. With the state Congress President Thakur Kaul Singh already on her side, the Union Commerce Minister Anand Sharma is also publicly backing the Stokes-Kaul camp. They will perhaps want Kaul Singh to be re-elected as the state party president. On the other hand, Virbhadra Singh may want one of his loyalists, most likely former Speaker Gangu Ram Musafir, for the coveted party office.

In this escalated factional fight what stands in good stead for Virbhadra Singh is his image of a mass leader and the Congress's single biggest vote-catcher. The party's central leadership might have withdrawn him from state politics by accommodating in the Union cabinet to clear way for his opponents like Vidya Stokes. But if he fails to nurse his base in the state, he would lose the race for returning to state politics. This is why he has lately started frequently visiting the state to revive and strengthen his contacts with party workers and the people. He perhaps would prefer to return to state politics to head a Congress government if the party returns to power after two and a half years.

The state BJP is also sailing in the same boat as the Congress so far as factionalism is concerned. But Dhumal has the consolation that his adversaries in the party have been in a low profile and he has the backing of some senior central leaders.

Success can be a precursor of failure if it is allowed to induce complacency which, in turn, can block the way for future progress. This is particularly true in governance and political arenas. Dhumal may currently be bathing in the glory of the near absence of anti-incumbency wave. But he is bound to be confronted with political and governance challenges during the remaining half term of his Chief Ministership. This is an era of fragile loyalties of politicians and frequently changing mood of electorate. Hence, it does not take long for political fortunes of parties and their leaders to change.

Challenges for Dhumal may emanate from both within his own party and the Congress. No doubt, the Chief Minister is presently breathing easy after his party's central leadership withdrew his opponents from the state to the Centre. But the very fact that Shanta Kumar and J.P.Nadda, both occupying key positions of the party's national vice-president and general secretary respectively, they are in an advantageous position to influence the minds of the central party leaders about the affairs of the state unit.

Dhumal will also have to face governance challenges which either he did not have to or which remained subdued during the first half of his term. The foremost among these challengers will be on the economic front. The state's finances are in very bad shape. Besides the huge debt, the government has not been able to honour some of its major committed expenditure. For instance, .the government employees are yet to be paid bulk of their pay arrears granted by the Pay Commission and also their additional DA instalment.

The government so far also did not have to face popular protests or agitations. Only small disgruntled sections of the employees and people have occasionally been meekly raising their voice for the fulfillment of their demands. As the Assembly elections near, protest voices are bound to become louder and widespread as, because of its cash crunch, the government will not be able to fully meet their demands. The government has so far failed to mobilize required additional resources.

Such situations generate anti-incumbency sentiment which are godsend for the opposition for mobilizing people against the government. Notwithstanding its history of being perennially faction-ridden, prospects of capturing power usually enables central Congress leadership to forge patch-work unity among its feuding leaders. Hence, despite its poor organisational health, the Congress would try, as the elections approach, to capitalize the dissatisfaction among the people.

If the political scenario of the hill state as perceived above becomes a reality, it will make the 2012 electoral battle between the ruling BJP and the Congress tougher even enabling the state to maintain its reputation of being alternately ruled by the two parties. (IPA Service)