If Jagan had been creating problems for the high command with his Odarpu Yatra, the recent results are a wake up call for the party that despite winning a landslide majority last year in the Assembly and Lok Sabha polls, political stability is not there. This is on account of two things. First, the Congress lacks a strong leader as the chief minister Rosaiah has turned out to be a weak leader. Secondly, the Congress majority in the house will be a question mark if Jagan decides to revolt with his 30 odd MLAs.

The results clearly show the strong sentiment of the region. The TRS won 11 of the 12 seats while the BJP bagged the other leaving the Congress and the TDP gasping. All 119 MLAs from Telengana had agreed to resign six months ago, but Congress and TDP MLAs backed out. Ten TRS MLAs and one each from BJP and TDP, however, stuck to their guns and now won back their seats with increased majority. TDP seat has been wrested by the TRS.

The results did not come as a surprise as the Congress and the TDP contested the polls in a halfhearted manner. The Congress has lost the goodwill it had earned after the December 9 announcement by the Home Minister that the process for a separate Telengana will be initiated. The local Congress was not in favour of even contesting while Delhi decided to put up candidates most of whom have now lost their deposits. As for the TDP, its leader Chandrababu Naidu was busy with his Babli agitation ignoring the by polls. Perhaps he knew the TDP on its own could not win. In 2009, the TDP in alliance with the TRS won 39 out of the 57 seats it contested in Telengana region whereas the TRS could win in only 10 of 45 seats allotted to it. The Congress did well due to the Machiavellian strategies of the late Rajashekhara Reddy.

The Congress should worry not only about the increased margin of the candidates but also about the political instability. This is the second time the TRS has performed well on its own. T. Harish Rao, nephew of Chandrasekhar Rao retained Siddipet by 95,381 votes, the kind of majority usually seen in Lok Sabha elections. All other candidates secured majorities ranging from 10,000 to 60,000 votes. The students of the region support the movement.

If the Sri Krishna Commission setup to go into the separate Telengana demand recommends a separate state in December, there would be bloodshed in Andhra. Rayalaseema would seek a greater Rayalaseema. Moreover where would Hyderabad go? Billions of rupees are invested in Hyderabad by outsiders as well as those industrialists from Andhra.

The future is a question mark if things are not handled politically. First of all, the results have strengthened the case for a separate Telengana. From now on there will be more pressure even from within the Congress now that the people of Telengana have spoken clearly.

Secondly, apart from being a morale booster for the TRS, the results could influence the Sri Krishna Commission. It cannot ignore the voters' desire while submitting its report in December this year.

Thirdly, the results are indirectly set to tilt the balance in favour of Jagan Mohan Reddy, who is testing waters by his Odarpu Yatra. Jagan's supporters, emboldened by the Telengana results have once again begun their demand to replace chief minister Rosaiah. Jagan is emboldened not only to take on Rosaiah but also the high command by his open defiance. It is true that Jagan had no role in the adverse results of Telengana as he was not even allowed to enter the region earlier, but the morale of the Congress is not good in the state.

Fourthly, the poll outcome has widened the differences within the Congress. This is evident form the way the MPs from the pro and anti Telengana groups have started their dinner diplomacy in the capital to strategise how to pressure on the centre.

Fifthly, political instability would increase. There is demand for the ouster of Rosaiah and the Reddys are getting ready to take over. There is another group, which demands action against Jagan.

The Congress leaders put up a brave face, claiming that losing a dozen seats in the 294 Assembly does not mean that things are not well. It is true that the Congress was not holding any of these seats, but the results are a reminder of how much the party stands to lose if it does not get its Telengana strategy right before the next polls.

If the Congress leadership wants to set things right in the state, inaction cannot be the answer. The division in the party on Telengana does not auger well. The first thing is to bring unity in the party. This will be a difficult in view of the sensitivity of the issue.

Secondly, the PCC chief D. Srinivas has cut a sorry figure, as he could not get elected in the bye polls despite spending huge amounts of money. A package deal to replace the PCC chief as well as the chief minister should be worked out before Sri Krishna report is submitted.

Thirdly, Jagan should be tackled immediately before he could create more damage to the party. If the Congress is complacent that there are three and a half more years for the next Assembly polls, thing may go out of control. The damage control has to be done now, otherwise Andhra Pradesh will face a repeat of the earlier Telengana and Andhra agitations. (IPA Service)