The beginning of the new phase has witnessed two important developments. First, the formation of an alliance between BSP and former Chief Minister Bhajan Lal's Haryana Janhit Congress. The second is the report of the senior INLD leader Prof. Sampat Singh on the main opposition party's poll debacle.

Adversity turns foes into friends. The Bhajan Lal clan and BSP were never foes. In fact, in search of an ally for his disintegrating HJC, Bhajan Lal's son, Kuldeep Bishnoi, had tried to seek an alliance with Mayawati for Lok Sabha polls after he failed to have one with BJP which preferred to join hands with its former ally, Chautala. Mayawati had spurned the offer even after Bhajan Lal and Kuldeep praised her as a “far superior leader than Sonia Gandhi”. But the Lok Sabha poll debacle forced the two parties to form an alliance. The agreement envisages sharing the Assembly's 90 and Lok Sabha's ten seats by the HJC and BSP in 50:40 in 4:6 ratios respectively. The agreement also stipulates that the alliance's Chief Ministerial candidate will be Kuldeep while a Dalit from BSP will be Deputy Chief Minister if the alliance wins Assembly polls.

Assembly elections are a different game than Lok Sabha polls as the factors that decide their outcome are usually not similar. While national issues play a major role in Lok Sabha elections, it is local issues like a state's overall political environment, performance of government and level of anti-incumbency that generally decide Assembly polls outcome.

It is too premature to hazard any guess about the electoral fate political parties will meet in 2010. Unless a miracle happens, the situation does not seem to be promising for the opposition. Fresh from its electoral triumph, the political stock of Hooda government and the ruling party is high. Due to its poll debacle, the opposition stands demoralised. The poll outcome showed that anti-incumbency as reflected by people's protests on issues including power and water shortage and bad law and order was neutralised by Hooda government's performance, its winning over of large sections of people, particularly farmers by granting generous sops and freebies and Chief Minister's amiable nature. There are no indications of INLD having succeeded in winning back the sections of its vote bank it had lost to Congress. BJP whose base in Haryana is already deeply eroded also stands organisationally and ideologically torn apart at national level after its poll defeat.

It is the newly formed BSP-HJC alliance that can become a source of worry for Congress as the BSP has almost trebled its 2004 vote share.

Introspection induces realism. The perceived scenario could undergo change if political parties objectively introspect and take corrective measures.

Still in a celebrating mood over its magnificent Lok Sabha victory, the state's ruling Congress leadership does not seem to have made any serious attempt to look into its shortcomings exposed by the elections. For instance, there are no indications of the party having comprehensively analysed the factors behind some party leaders opposition to party candidates in certain constituencies. One is also yet to see the remedial measures needed to check such trends which affected the party's winning margins in some constituencies and deprived it of winning Hissar, the lone seat it lost to former Chief Minister and HJC leader Bhajan Lal.

No doubt, sops and far-reaching relief measures for almost all sections of the population taken by the Hooda-led government coupled with the UPA government's freebies and social-welfare schemes helped Congress's resounding electoral win. And with an eye on the coming Assembly elections, Hooda has also now initiated steps for fulfilling the party's remaining promises. But if the inner-party schism continues, it can prove costly for the ruling party in Assembly polls. Complacency often proves baneful.

Prof. Sampat Singh known for his sobriety and plain speaking has daringly detailed the reasons for the INLD's poll debacle which have created a flutter within the party. Captioned “Summary of the questions raised by party workers during party meetings”, he has cited five dozen reasons for the INLD defeat. Among other factors, he has also raised some pointed questions on the style of functioning of the party leadership. Others include deviation from Devi Lal's policies, party leadership publicly humiliating workers after attaining power, arrogance of those who remain in close proximity to the Chautala family, lack of powers to ministers during the INLD regime, forcible use of vehicles for party rallies through the police when in power and accepting garlands of currency notes, “mukuts” and maces. Indeed signs of autocratic functioning and money making.

Since the introspection is a virtual indictment of the style of functioning of the party supremo Om Parkash Chautala, it will be interesting to watch his reaction as also Sampat Singh's future in the party.

So far as HJC and BSP are concerned it is their realistic introspection that has prompted them to form an alliance to ensure survival in Haryana's electoral politics.

The second phase of Haryana politics is crucial as the Assembly elections will decide the future of political stability Haryana has witnessed in the last five years.(IPA Service)