There were clear signs last year that the monsoon, which arrived early on account of the cyclone Aila, was behaving abnormally. The state received about 10 to 15 per cent less rain than normal.

The pattern of precipitation showed an acute shortfall between June to August, Post August though, the quantum increased and the state ended up with only a notional deficit that had little impact on overall agricultural yield.

This time, the scenario has remained more or less the same during the June to August period, with the difference that the extent of deficit is now 35 per cent in South Bengal, where the bulk of the major Aman rice crop is produced. This is the state's main crop, which, 63 years after freedom, is still critically dependant on the vagaries of weather. Good monsoon equals good crop, droughts mean near ruin for agriculturists. And 80% of the farmers, peasants and sharecroppers are directly dependant for their livelihood on the quality of aman rice production.

This is the position, for all tall claims made by ruling left leaders about West Bengal “leading the country in terms of agricultural output.” The state government does nothing of the kind, despite their 33 year long tenure in political power.

Initial estimates suggested that in the drought-hit districts in south Bengal, there would hardly be any cultivation worth the name in 11,00,000 hectares of land. . Now the position has deteriorated and it seems a much larger area will remain barren. The anticipated loss in foodgrains production, estimated earlier at 27,00,000 tonnes, will almost certainly be much more.

The government has procured about 12,00,000 tonnes of rice so far, as against a target of 18,00,000 tonnes, With one month to go for procurement, it seems the target, itself inadequate in view of the present needs, will not be met.

In the affected districts, reports of distress are coming in. Especially among poorer cultivators, who had invested some meager savings in buying seeds and starting cultivation, there are reports of a reduction in food intake, as reported in the local press.

In districts where irrigation facilities are available, the situation is somewhat better. But the DVC reservoirs cannot release water as demanded by the state government for irrigation because of falling water levels over last year and the present, because of the reduction in rainfall.

State Finance department authorities claim that the losses will exceed Rs 5,000 crore. The state has declared some districts as drought hit and asked the central government to send teams and financial help, mainly to rev up the NREGA schemes. However, the problem is some components of the NREGA schemes like road building etc cannot be undertaken in the rainy season.

The ruling Left Front, which nowadays occasionally reverts to its old anti-Centre rhetoric (it remained suspended up to the 2009 Lok Sabha polls!), claims that the centre is not helping the state fast enough, whether for drought relief or for the post Aila rehab operations. For repairing the widespread damage caused by Aila, the centre had promised Rs 1,000 core, with a special provision to build permanent embankments along the Bay of Bengal coast. The state says it has received only Rs 170 crore so far.

The state's case would have been strengthened if the affected people of south 24 Parganas district had not complained that they had received no help from Writers” Buildings. Where have the Rs 170 crore gone, they ask?

Not learning from the danger signals of last year, in 2010, the state administration, headed by doddering old Ministers who seem to be too burdened with their knowledge of history, took no precautionary steps to meet the challenge of a drought. Minister for Agriculture, Naren De of Forward Bloc, now complains that the Met department had never predicted a drought! Apparently, by his logic this absolves his department of any responsibility.

In fact a visiting Central Agriculture department official had warned the state government about the possible failure of the monsoon. He had suggested that the state earmark some areas for raising crops which did not require much water and procure seeds for the purpose. This happened in May.

Kolkata-based officials too had suggested some steps, such as desilting canals and rivers, the digging of at least one pond for every village, to introduce rainwater conservation schemes and step up the use of organic Fertilisers.

Given West Bengal's poor administrative record, it is no surprise to learn that nothing had been done, till Aug end. There are reports instead that the central official is understandably annoyed that the state had not even placed timely orders to buy seeds as he had suggested and there can be no way to start immediately dry weather cultivation.

Given this backdrop, there could be an increase in rural migration from West Bengal in the coming winter. It had started in the post Aila period and now such economic migration to other states will become a way of life for many people in the state, thanks to the inefficiency and criminal indifference on part of the left front Government.(IPA)