In the 2005 elections, it was LDF all the way. The CPI-M-led Front scored a spectacular victory trouncing the UDF. The latter's cup of humiliation overflowed with the Front failing to win even a single Corporation out of the five in the state.

The political situation in 2005 was favourable to the LDF. The Congress had been weakened considerably by the exit of the Karunakaran group and his formation of the Democratic Indira Congress (DIC) which supported the LDF in the local bodies polls.

Much water has flowed down the Periyar river during the last five years. There has been a sea-change in the political ambience. The CPI(M) itself has admitted that the situation has altered and the going is tough this time. The Kerala Congress (Joseph) left the LDF and merged in the Kerala Congress (Mani) group, a constituent of the UDF. Another LDF partner, Janata Dal split, and the new party formed by MP Veerendrakumar faction, Socialist Janata (Democratic) joined the UDF.

As if this was not enough, the Indian National League (INL) walked over to the UDF camp protesting against the LDF's refusal to officially admit it to the Front. The LDF has parted ways with the Abdul Nasser Madani-led People's Democratic Party (PDP) with the dominant partner CPI(M) admitting that it was a mistake to join hands with it. Moreover, the Jammat-e-Islami, which supported the LDF in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections has fallen out with the Front following the CPI(M)'s strident criticism of its attempts to dabble in politics. All these developments cannot but erode the LDF's Muslim support base.

The LDF leadership is, however, confident of overcoming these hurdles and putting up a good show. Its confidence stems from what it says is the good performance on the governance front and people-friendly measures taken in the last six months. The LDF is also hoping to take advantage of the discord and tension marking the UDF efforts to finalise seat allocation among the front partners.

On the other hand, the confidence level is quite high in the UDF camp. The front leaders say they are very much on the comeback trail thanks to the various acts of omission and commission of the LDF government. The anti-incumbency factor will be quite pronounced this time because of the non-performance of the LDF in the local bodies as well, they say. The UDF is hoping to cash in on the lottery scam and the recent liquor tragedy which claimed more than 25 lives.

But a matter of concern for the UDF is the problems plaguing the finalisation of candidates. Most of the allies are demanding more seats this time. The Kerala Congress (Mani) is claiming that its strength has increased substantially in the wake of the merger in it of the Kerala Congress (Joseph) faction, which was in the LDF fold last time.

Relations of the Congress with the KR Gowri-led Janadhipathya Samrakshana Samithi (JSS) have nosedived in the wake of Gowri's allegation that the Congress has been trying to weaken her party by denying it its legitimate share of seats. Despite complaining about Congress activists working against her party in the last local bodies elections as well as the assembly polls, the State Congress leadership has not cared to address her concerns, she alleges. The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) is also stoutly resisting the Congress attempts to make it concede seats from its kitty to the INL.

Of course, the UDF leadership is hopeful of weathering the storm sooner than later. But it remains to be seen whether they will be able to do so.

In the 2005 local bodies elections, the LDF had won 730 out of the 978 gram panchayats, 33 out of the 59 municipalities and 113 out of the 159 block panchayats. It also won all the five corporations in the state.

In the matter of seat finalization, the LDF has had a headstart. The UDF is also hoping to iron out the wrinkles and finalise candidates by September 21.

The semi-final of the electoral contest promises to be a battle royal in which not only local issues but also the LF government's performance will also be subject to public scrutiny. (IPA Service)