Bihar is the first theatre where the post-verdict Muslim ire will be tested. Nitish Kumar has pleaded with the BJP to play down the temple card. He fears that rallies of the rath yatra hero and Ram Lalla's advocate Ravishankar Prasad will provoke 'Jai Shri Ram' slogans. This will badly upset Nitish's carefully crafted minority vote bank. On the other, Lalu is already talking of how he had halted Advani's yatra and arrested him. He depicts Nitish and Congress as colluding with the mosque breakers. It is interesting to see how will Nitish overcome this muddle.

The worst fear in the Congress is that as campaign begins, Lalu Yadav will go to the meanest level to whip up the Muslim disappointment with both the BJP and Congress. His candidates in Muslim concentrations have been directed to highlight that the Congress had at every stage colluded with the VHP and Bajrangdal to demolish the mosque. That is why, Lalu tells his men, the Congress had appealed to the Muslims to accept the court verdict as it is. It is aimed at diverting the upper caste votes from the BJP. Printed facts citing the Congress-BJP-Nitish 'collusion' are being circulated. This is one way to restore Lalu's old 'M-Y' (Muslim-Yadav) formula.

Clearly, every secular political party is in a flex. While most have so far played it safe, the Congress party has betrayed its panic by messing up things so badly. Soon after the verdict, the party's Core Group met. It did have quick intelligence input and legal brief. Despite this it came out with a thoughtless appeal to all parties of the dispute to accept the court's order and act accordingly. Little had they realized that subterranean Muslim sentiment was so furious about the judicial let-down. In Muslim mohallas, even those who can't understand the legal nuances were seething with anger.

The Core Group, composed of rootless leaders was blissfully unaware of this grim truth. It was like last year's the panic decision on Telengana. Barring A.K. Antony, other members of the group — the PM, Sonia Gandhi, Ahmed Patel, Pranab Mukherjee and Chidambaram as special invitee - are all Delhi-based. None of them have any field experience. Hence they clung to cliche like India has 'moved on' from the 1990s and communalism will 'not sell any more.' But by Wednesday, disturbing reports began pouring in. Congress leaders from Kerala, where panchayat elections are in the process, sent SOS for a firmer defence of the Muslim claim. The latter can tilt balance in one-fourth of the constituencies in the state.

Even the Congress working committee which met on September 4 found itself overtaken by events. Its appeal for 'out-of-court' settlement had already been formally rejected by the Wakf Board. The fact is the Congress is in a deep dilemma. True, it need not worry much about a Muslim communal consolidation in States like Karnataka, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and, to a great extent, Maharashtra. In these states, Muslim anger may even help it consolidate votes against the BJP. But it is not so in states like Kerala, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, UP and Bihar, where dominant regional parties are waiting in the wings to target the Congress. The Left and Telugu Desam have a substantial Muslim base. In UP, it has been a three-way fight.

In fact, Rahul Gandhi's revival strategy for UP and Bihar, hinges wholly on winning back the Muslim and upper caste votes. Mulayam's tie-up with Kalyan Singh, under whose rule the mosque was pulled down, had considerably helped Congress win back substantial Muslim support in UP. This had raised hopes of the upper castes once again smiling at the grand old party. The Congress had lost both way in early 90s' Mandal-Mandir imbroglio. While minorities went to Mulayam and upper castes to the BJP, Mayawati grabbed the Dalits, the other Congress vote bank. If the VHP and others raise the pitch for a bigger mandir and mobilise massive pilgrimages by the devout, such triumphalism can enhance the hurt sentiments on the other side.

Let there be no doubt. Mulayam is out to whip up the Muslim sentiments against the Congress. He is keen to recover the ground lost to the Congress and Mayawati. The UPA had twice lured him into saving the government but let him down on both occasions. The Congress may have got its minority MPs to rebuff his blunt outburst that the 'Muslims feel cheated.' But the plain facts he marshals seem to impress large minority sections at popular levels. Abdullah Bukhari is one among the clerics who have bought Mulayam's arguments. The Congress, he says, had always let down the Muslims: installing the idols in 1949, opening of the locks, shilanyas, allowing the mosque's demolition and now asking for accepting the verdict.

In the traditional dynamics of the Muslim's voting behavior, especially in Hindi hinterland, such arguments can play havoc for the Congress. Indian Muslims never recognise a pan-India leadership. Not even within the same state unless massive emotional waves like the forced sterilization or anti-Rao anger after the Babri demolition sweep across. In normal course, the Muslims in UP and Bihar resort to a system of 'strategic voting'. Under this, a couple of days before the election, community leaders meet and decide to bulk-vote for the best winning secular candidate - SP, BSP, Congress or RJD.

This is the most efficient utilization of the vote power. It is done mostly at the constituency level. In most parts of UP, defeating the BJP and protection during the riots are the community's major concerns. The Congress has much to worry about Mulayam's brinkmanship to recover hia lost ground. On her part, Mayawati is quietly watching for any slips by the Congress. Initially she had anticipated Mulayam's over-reaction will backfire. Since that seems not the case, she can well borrow all of his arguments and use against the Rahul Congress.

The Congress party seems least prepared for such ground-level assaults. 'Intel' reports, from Indira Gandhi to Chidambaram, had failed the Congress. The Core Group has no one from the large hinterland to present what was really happening in its mohallas and village wards. Things like emerging India rejecting old cliché can be good stuff for the elite chats. But hard politics has its own dynamics. (IPA Service)