The other reason is that it isn't only the BJP which has sensed this change in the popular mood. Even the politically less savvy RSS has appreciated the fact that the exploitation of religious sentiments is of no use in the long run. Only the hotheads in the Sangh parivar like the VHP haven't understood this. But, till now, the RSS seems to have succeeded in keeping them under control.

But the loss of the temple card may not embarrass the BJP so much as the more mundane developments in Karnataka and Bihar. These will tend to confirm the perception that the BJP is really no different from the other parties where the acquisition and retention of power are concerned. Karnataka is a prime example in this respect, for the events there have shown how the BJP is willing to bend the rules for the sake of power. Combined with the fact that it had earlier teamed up with Shibu Soren, despite his earlier “betrayal”, to form a government in Jharkhand, the BJP's holier-than-thou pretences are steadily wearing in.

Even more than Jharkhand, however, it is Karnataka which has the potential to damage its reputation the most. The reason is the BJP's proximity to the so-called Bellary brothers - Janardhana and Karunakara Reddy - the businessmen-cum-ministers, who have become a byword for dubious mining ventures. They are also regarded as the party's money bags who ensured that B.S. Yeddyurappa could form the BJP's first government in the south in 2008 by ensuring the “loyalty” of the Independents.

The allegations of venality against the state government gained all the more credence when the Lokayukta, Santosh Hegde, resigned, alleging that he was unable to make any progress in investigating corruption. Although he withdrew his resignation a few days later, apparently at the behest of L.K. Advani, the atmosphere has remained murky. Now, it will become even more so in view of the questionable means adopted by the Speaker, K.G. Bopaiah, to save the government by disqualifying the dissident BJP and Independent MLAs on the day of the trust vote.

If the Yeddyurappa government ran into trouble because of the revolt of the party legislators, the BJP experienced a similar show of discontent in Bihar when the party chief, C.P. Thakur, resigned after his son was denied a ticket for the forthcoming assembly elections. Although he subsequently withdrew his resignation (like Santosh Hegde) following a meeting with BJP president Nitin Gadkari, the show of dissent has exposed the BJP's vulnerability in a crucial state.

As it is, the fact that the party is on a weak wicket there is evident from its decision to accept Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's ban on any campaigning by Narendra Modi and Varun Gandhi in the state. Earlier, the chief minister had taken umbrage at the display of a poster showing him clasping hands with Modi during a BJP conclave in Patna. He was so upset that he even boycotted a dinner hosted by the BJP. The chief minister's unease stemmed from his uncertain hold on the Muslim vote, which, he feared, would be grabbed by Lalu Prasad Yadav's RJD if his closeness to Modi was highlighted.

Nitish Kumar will be even more nervous in the aftermath of the high court judgment, which couldn't have pleased the Muslims. Till now, he was sure that his successful developmental and law-and-order planks would enable the ruling alliance to sail through. But the loss of the Muslim vote will enable the RJD and its junior partner, Ramvilas Paswan's LJP, to give the JD (U)-BJP combine a run for its money.

The latter will be in even greater difficulty if the upper castes express their disillusionment with the BJP by staying away from the polling booths in large numbers. The brief revolt of C.P. Thakur, who is a Bhumihar, is significant in this respect. The upper castes have been unhappy with the BJP because it has been playing second fiddle to Nitish Kumar and the backward caste lobby with the BJP's OBC deputy chief minister, Sushil Kumar Modi, staying very much in the background.

Now, they may begin to wonder about the party's policies in view of its muted reaction to the high court verdict. Ironically, while the judgment may deny the JD (U) whatever Muslim support it has been getting till now, it can also turn the Brahmin-Bhumihar-Rajput votes away from the ruling combination. (IPA Service)