The few human rights activists in the country had no doubts about the way the junta wanted to rig the elections but they were quite surprised at the way Indian Government overlooked the authoritarianism of the Myanmar rulers and continued normal relations with the Yangon administration. Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh during his recent visit did not utter any words which will give some strength to the pro-democracy movement. India is in the company of China which has welcomed the peaceful and successful elections in Myanmar and its entire strategy is to grab the highly lucrative energy assets of this neighbouring country.

And how was the process of elections? The 30-million-strong electorate did not know what were issues before it and felt no enthusiasm to exercise their franchise but many did because to refrain from voting or to ask others not to vote invites penalties from the State. Even delivering any political message in public without permits is a violation of the electoral law. The junta threatened those who abstained from voting with reprisals and depriving them of voting rights in future. The people voted because they had to. On the polling day (Nov.7) it was a common sight to see groups of youngsters rush out of lanes and by-lanes in the cities, distribute leaflets to people and quickly disappear in the lanes again.

It was a loaded dice election, if ever there was one. The junta did not allow international monitoring. So, preliminary reports that the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) - the “civil” face of the ruling junta - are already far ahead of all its rivals should not cause any surprise anywhere. In fact the main contest lay between two pro-government parties - the USDP and the National Unity Party (NUP).

The NUP was beaten by Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) in the 1990 elections. The junta did not respect the verdict of the people. Instead, it has kept the 65 year old Suu Kyi under house arrest ever since. It disbanded her party on May 6 this year. A break-away faction of her party formed a new political party named National Democratic Force (NDF) and decided to contest the polls to the bi-cameral parliament and the regional legislatures, vowing to continue Suu Kyi's struggle for restoring democracy.

Another small party, the Democratic Party (Myanmar), complained to the poll authorities of intimidation of its members by security personnel, while Phyo Min Thein resigned from the chairmanship of the Union Democratic Party and announced he would boycott the polls.

There were forty parties in the fray, some of them representing ethnic minorities. The biggest among these is the Shan Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP) but its influence is limited only to six million people of Shan State. They are still carrying on their armed struggle against the junta. Immediately after the polling ended, fighting erupted between the Shan rebels and the regular troops of the Government. The intensity and extent of the clashes can be gauged from the fact that at least fifteen thousand refugees are estimated to have fled and taken shelter in Thailand. Chronic ethnic conflicts have continued to bedevil Myanmar for decades.

The sham nature of the elections becomes evident from the fact that USDP and NUP account for two-thirds of the three thousand odd registered candidates. It is mathematically impossible for all the candidates of all other pro-democracy parties taken together to win a majority. In fact, the position is such that the USDP will have to win a mere 26 per cent of the votes cast to have a majority and thus legitimize the army-rule-by- proxy. Among the smaller parties, only the SNDP fielded 157 candidates. The party is likely to get a majority in the Shan State legislature.

Reactions of other countries to the Myanmarese elections have been negative. President Obama said the polls would be “anything but free and fair.” Diplomats of other countries and foreign correspondents based in Myanmar were invited to observe polling in “selected polling stations” but most refused, including Ambassadors of European Union, the US and Australia. Asian countries, too, preferred to refrain from commenting.
Only China hailed the polls as a “sign of progress.” Myanmar's economy has been in a bad shape and it is Chinese aid which keeps her afloat. China also protects Myanmar from being subjected to any UN sanctions for violation of human rights, like the continued internment of Suu Kyi for decades.

Indo-Myanmarese relations went into hibernation after the junta captured power. Of late India has taken a fresh initiative to deepen its ties with Myanmar as a part of its “Look East” policy. So, it is natural that New Delhi has not as yet commented on the polls. Early October, India's National Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon made the cryptic comment that the elections would be a “significant step towards democracy.” Ground realities do not strengthen such optimism. But the battle for democracy in Myanmar is essentially a battle for the Myanmarese people. India can only lend her moral support to efforts at restoration of democracy but even that has not been done. (IPA Service)