The problems Akali Dal face are largely the creation of coalition government's misdirected policies and the Akali leadership, particularly Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Badal's style of functioning.

Economy is the driving force of politics. There is no better evidence than the current turbulence in Akali Dal and the near bankrupt state of Punjab's economy.

The rot started after the ousted Finance Minister and Sukhbir's cousin Manpreet Badal's insistence that Punjab's fiscal health direly needs to be improved and the state pulled out of its debt trap by curtailing expenditure, scrapping subsidies particularly free power to farm sector and mobilising additional resources. But the Badals and most other Akali leaders insisted that as the party had committed free power to farmers in its election manifesto, it cannot be withdrawn.

Manpreet told the Assembly that the Centre was ready to waive nearly half of the state's Rs.70,000 crore debt provided Punjab scaled down subsidies in phases and mobilize additional resources. But the Akali leaders rejected the condition of scrapping subsidies. The ousted Finance Minister's insistence that the government must accept the Centre's conditional offer to bail out Punjab and the Akali leadership's rejection of the demand triggered the crisis in Akali Dal and resulted in Manpreet's ouster first from the ministry and then from Akali Dal. Akali leaders kept mum on the demand of Manpreet and Opposition that free power should be provided only to the small and marginal farmers and not to rich farmers. They obviously do not want scrapping of free power for the rich landed class as this would hit the rich ruling class's own economic interests.

The downhill slide is not confined to Akali Dal politics alone. It has also assumed worrying dimensions in governance and performance arenas. The state's law and order situation has been worsening. Unemployment is growing. Money is borrowed even to pay employees salaries. Some sections of the employees have been holding protests against the inordinate delays in payment of salaries. The government under employees pressure last week has been forced to announce to pay their Pay Commission's arrears but in three yearly instalments beginning in early 2011.

What is more alarming is the unchecked trend of curbing democratic rights and freedom of expression. Its latest victim is Manpreet. The media has been reporting about the use of police and civil administration for sabotaging Manpreet's rallies.

These developments illustrate an ironical contrast between the approach of Sukhbir and Capt. Amarinder Singh towards some crucial public matters. An example: Sukhbir who was claimed to have learnt lessons from his rigging the local bodies elections and curbing the people right to free voting now seems to be adopting his old functioning style though in a somewhat different form as evidenced by the case of Manpreet's public rallies.

In sharp contrast, Capt. Amarinder Singh who had initiated the culture of vendetta politics during his 2002-2007 rule which was also followed by his Akali successors, has said after taking over PCC Presidentship that he does not believe in vendetta politics. He has also said he was not interested in reopening the corruption case against the Badals who were recently exonerated by the court. He seems to have drawn appropriate lessons from his past experiences.

The positive impact of his statements after taking over as PCC president, besides other factors, make him a formidable foe the Akalis would have to dread in the Assembly elections. Capt. is a fighter and knows the working of top Akali leaders mind. The huge gathering of enthusiastic party workers at his coronation was a sign of the hibernated state party's rejuvenation. Though some elements in State Congress have not yet reconciled to his heading of PCC, the fact that he has the backing of the party high command may prompt them to reconcile to his elevation.

In the backdrop of the above developments, what needs to be watched is whether these will impact the plans to elevate Sukhbir as Chief Minister. The general impression has been that Sukhbir's coronation may take place any time as the ageing 83-year old Parkash Singh Badal might like to see his son occupy his chair during his life time. But the turbulence in the ruling party does not rule out the possibility of a change in the plan for Sukhbir's coronation before the elections. Though Manpreet's campaign to mobilize support from within the Akali party has so far not yielded encouraging results, Sukhbir's ascendancy to Chief Ministership before the elections would provide the party's disgruntled elements especially those who fail to get party tickets, a rallying point. This may affect the Akali Dal's electoral prospects to the advantage of its principle political foe Congress.

Sukhbir has claimed that the Akali Dal would rule Punjab for 25 years. Haryana's former Chief Minister and Badals family friend Om Parkash Chautala, had also once claimed in the state Assembly that his INLD would rule Haryana for 25 years. But his first electoral contest in 2005, saw his party by securing only nine of the Assembly's 90 seats losing even the status of opposition party. What shape these perceptions about Punjab politics take would decide the fate of Sukhbir's utopian claim of Akali Dal ruling Punjab for 25 years. (IPA Service)