The sacking of telecom minister A. Raja is a classic example of this assertion although the opposition may claim victory. The Congress has come a long way from the days when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh dropped his efforts on disinvestment of Neyveli Lignite Corporation when the Tamil Nadu chief minister M. Karunanidhi just made one line statement that he would have to consider his party's support to the UPA government.

The Raja story brings out an assertive Congress. Raja's ouster is the culmination of a calculated strategy for its preparations for the Assembly elections next year. The build up to the sacking of Raja was after sacrificing Maharashtra chief minister Ashok Chavan and asking Suresh Kalmadi to resign from the Congress Parliamentary Party (CPP) secretary post this month.

Even sending Prithviraj Chavan to replace Ashok Chavan, the Congress was assertive. It is well known that the NCP chief Sharad Pawar was not very favourable to Chavan. As far as Trinamool Congress is concerned, for the local Congress leaders it is a daily battle with the railway minister Mamata Banerjee

While Karunanidhi was protecting Raja using the dalit card, the Congress could not touch Raja citing coalition compulsions. The Congress now feels “enough is enough”. Once this was recognised, self-interest made the Congress more assertive. Some say that even the timing of AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa's statement seeking Raja's ouster and her promise to provide 18 MPs including her own 8 was significant. Jayalalithaa has obviously been in touch with Deve Gowda and leaders of other smaller parties. Karunanidhi got the signal and reluctantly agreed for Raja's resignation.

The Congress is looking for revival in Tamil Nadu. With elections scheduled for next year, the Congress and the DMK alliance is in trouble. Raja's sacking has brought out some clarity in the thinking of the Congress as it has weakened the DMK.

First of all, the Congress wants to show a clean face and stand on moral high grounds. Already bogged with the Commonwealth scam, the party is unable to drag on regarding continuance of Raja.

Secondly, it is also a warning to the DMK that the Congress has other options. Jayalalithaa has already sounded the bugle. The local Congress leaders are keen to go with the AIADMK.

Thirdly, if Congress registers an impressive show in the Bihar polls, it could toughen its stand in Tamil Nadu. Weakening of the DMK means better bargaining position for the Congress.

There are several reasons for the Congress ambitions of coming back to power in a state where it is in the periphery since 1967.

First of all, the overall atmosphere in the country is beneficial to the Congress with a weak opposition. The Congress is shining in contrast.

Secondly, the Congress is in a position of strength to bargain with the DMK as well as the AIADMK for a winning arithmetic as the Congress vote share is crucial for a magic number.

Thirdly, the Congress leaders are enthused after the kind of crowds Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi are able to attract. Knowing for sure that the DMK cannot face polls without the Congress, Sonia Gandhi made no effort to appease her ally in a recent meeting at Tiruchirappalli. This was a new signal that Sonia sent to the DMK and it followed the Rahul Gandhi line on reviving the party and seen as a precursor to the bargaining powers of the Congress in seat sharing. DMK is also worried about the importance being accorded to former Union minister E V K S Elangovan, a bitter critic of Karunanidhi.

Fourthly, the Congress has emerged as the rallying point for at least two regional parties — PMK and DMDK, the latter led by actor Vijaykanth. The PMK, a backward-Vanniyar community based party which had snapped its ties with the AIADMK after drawing a blank in the Lok Sabha polls, is yet to decide its strategy for the assembly elections. It is keeping its cards close to its chest, but its founder Ramadoss has been advocating a front headed by the Congress. DMDK chief Vijaykanth's political future depends on this election although he has a ten per cent vote share.

Fifthly, Jayalalithaa has been dropping hints about power sharing apparently trying to wean the Congress away from DMK. She has made her intentions clear at the public meetings she had addressed, as she knows arithmetic and not chemistry, which matters in elections.

Sixthly, Karunanidhi is in a dilemma as to who should get Telecom ministry while the Congress wants to keep it. If Kanimozhi gets it, this will give a handle to Jayalalithaa. Already she is calling for an end to the “family rule” of Karunanidhi. “A family is trying to fool us. A family is looting Tamil Nadu, Go and see anywhere in any democratic country in the world, in which country you can see a father Chief Minister, a son deputy chief minister, another son a central minister, a grand son central minister, a daughter member of Parliament”, she argues. Last but not least the fight for the DMK legacy has become purely a family issue. Dynasty rules right down to the district secretary level.

The Congress seems to be in a win -win situation as far as Tamil Nadu is concerned and the only thing it has to do is to stop infighting as there are as many groups as there are leaders. Depending on arithmetic rather than chemistry may help the Congress. (IPA Service)