After all, the increase in the voting percentage of the JD(U)-BJP combine was less than three per cent. Whereas the two parties polled 36 per cent in 2005 – the JD(U) 20.4 and the BJP 15.6 – their latest percentage is 38.7 with the JD(U) getting 22.4 per cent and the BJP 16.3. It was the steep fall in the total percentages of the RJD, the LJP and the Congress from 40.5 five years ago to 34 at present which helped the ruling alliance to romp home.

However, as the figures show, the rise in the voting percentages of the JD(U) and the BJP has been only marginal. It will not be realistic to believe, therefore, that there has been a huge swing in Nitish Kumar’s favour. Instead, what has happened is that the disillusionment with Lalu and Co has increased in the last five years, evidently because the government’s developmental efforts have underlined the earlier lapses in this respect when Lalu was in charge.

The implications are that though demoralized at present, Lalu will remain a force to reckon with whom Nitish will ignore at his peril. Although the voting percentages have fallen by about five per cent for both Lalu and Ramvilas Paswan, it is the latter who seems to be on a weaker wicket presumably because of his limited base of support confined mainly to a section of the Dalits. Lalu, on the other hand, has clearly retained much of his hold on the Yadavs among the OBCs and perhaps also a section of the Muslims. It is also possible that some of the latter have turned to the Congress, whose percentages have gone up from six to 8.4.

What these figures confirm is that all the parties have some kind of a base, big or small. Even more than the major contestants, the percentages of the “others” in the fray, which include the Independents and minor parties which may not have won any seat at all are worth nothing. Interesting, their percentage has increased from 23.3 in 2005 to 27.1 this time to show the large political space occupied by what can be called the unorganized sector, to borrow a term used to denote a part of the country’s labour force. There are undoubtedly committed voters, however small, of these groups, perhaps belonging to the communist parties, which have always had a presence in Bihar, though it has been steadily dwindling.

If one implication of the outcome is that Nitish cannot ignore Lalu, another is that he will have to be cautious about the BJP. The fact that the latter’s percentages have remained steady over the last five years while that of the others have fluctuated is a sign that it has a fairly solid base, comprising without doubt the upper castes. Although Nitish has consolidated his position as the numero uno in the alliance, he cannot treat the BJP as shabbily as he did when he forced it to keep Narendra Modi and Varun Gandhi out of Bihar. The BJP may have swallowed the insult for the present, but the solidity of its base will tell Nitish that he cannot disrupt the ruling alliance in any way, as he did just before the last general election when he hinted that his partnership with the BJP was not the last word on the subject.

A third implication of the various percentages is that Nitish cannot afford to relax where his projects of governance and development are concerned, for the slight slippage can erode the difference of four per cent between the ruling combine and its adversaries. It is worth remembering that there was a similar tiny difference in West Bengal between the percentages of the Left Front on one hand and those of the Congress-Trinamool Congress alliance and other opposition parties, including the Socialist Unity Centre, in the 2006 assembly elections. The Left Front was not bothered at the time because of its comfortable majority, but its mistakes on the industrial front, especially the acquisition of fertile land, seem to have turned the scales against it.

Nitish will have to remember, therefore, that a major reason for his gains is his firm action against the bahubalis or muscle men. But since the JD(U) harbours the largest number of MLAs with a criminal past – 43, according to one study, and 58, according to another – it is open to question how long the law and order situation will remain under control. Nitish may well think, therefore, that winning the election was the easy part. (IPA Service)