Are the political parties ready to face a mid term poll now? The answer is an emphatic no. Despite the bravado, neither the UPA nor the NDA or others are in a position to face yet another costly elections barely after 19 months.

Why is the UPA talking of mid term polls? This could be to scare the opposition and divide their ranks. Both the houses did not function for a single day during the just concluded winter session as the opposition was adamant demanding a JPC to enquire into the 2 G scam. An equally adamant government did not yield resulting in an impasse, which is still not broken. The UPA is apprehensive about the impact of the opposition campaign. Early next year Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala and Assam are going for polls and stakes are high for both the Congress, left and the BJP

As feared, the BJP has announced a nation-wide anti corruption rallies to corner the UPA. Beginning in Delhi from December 22, the rallies will hit Ludhiana, Rohtak, Jaipur, Lucknow, Patna, Bhubaneswar, Bhopal, Ahmedabad, Mumbai, Hyderabad and Chennai. Conspicuous is Bangalore where the BJP chief minister Yediyurappa is facing corruption charges. The left parties and others are also drawing up plans to sustain the campaign.

First of all the UPA itself is not ready for a mid term poll. Going by the current spurt of scams like the 2G and the Common Wealth scam involving lakhs of crores of rupees the UPA credibility is at its lowest now. How could the government face the electorate after the exposure of Niira Radia tapes? The allies like the Trinamool Congress and the NCP are nervous about yet another Lok Sabha poll so soon.

Secondly the NDA is also not ready for polls. If the UPA is facing scams, the NDA too is not in a good position. The BJP has internal problems, groupism, indiscipline and above all, lack of leadership. If elections are held today, the BJP may not fare as well as although it did well in Bihar with a remarkable strike rate.

Thirdly, the Congress party, which leads the UPA, is not in good shape. Bihar elections have thrown the party into gloom. While the Congress emerged as the single largest party at the Centre and came back to power in 2009 showing a marked improvement in UP, the Bihar results have dashed its hopes. The party won only four of the 243 seats it contested. The vote share also came down. The “ekla chalo” experiment of Rahul Gandhi seems to have failed in Bihar which may result in a rethink. Stakes are high in next year’s Assembly elections in West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Assam. While the Congress Trinamool alliance seems to be on track, its alliance with the DMK is not promising.

The AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa is making overtures asking Congress to dump the DMK. While Kerala is promising for the Congress, things are comfortable in Assam.

Fourthly after the Radia tapes, the corporate sector is nervous about the phone tapping of business magnets. The Prime Minister himself had to alley their fears at a “corporate week 2010” meeting recently. In an effort to soothe the ruffled feathers, Manmohan Singh said” while the powers are needed they have to be exercised with utmost care and under defined rules, procedures and mechanisms so that they are not misused.” The corporate leaders have made it clear that the phone tapping had hurt the morale of the industry. In such a widening gap between the government and the corporate world, which industrialist will finance political parties or give them huge donations for the elections?

Fifthly the situation on the price front is not very good despite the claim of the government that the inflation has come down to 7.48 per cent. The vegetable and food prices continue to be high and remain beyond the reach of the common man.

Sixthly the Congress may not be in a hurry to face polls because Rahul Gandhi is still not ready to take over. He is continuing with his “Bharat Darshan” and getting to know the people. Until he is ready to take over, the Sonia-Singh experiment will continue. (IPA Service)