Manpreet Singh’s first widely publicised Amritsar public rally disappointed the people. It was expected that he would make an announcement either for launching a campaign against the government’s non-performance and misgovernance or for joining a political party. He did none. Instead, he made the uninspiring announcement of undertaking a “Jago Punjab yatra” (Awaken Punjab march) throughout the state to exhort the people to curb social evils and to fight against the government’s wrong policies.

The top Akali leaders seemed happy at the damp squib outcome of the ousted minister’s much touted rally. But following the good response his Punjab Jago Yatra is evoking the realization seems to have dawned on the Akali Dal bosses about the political implications of Manpreet’s shrewd moves. The likely negative effect of the ousted leader’s campaign on the party’s prospects in the approaching Assembly elections has spurned Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal to launch a two-pronged damage control campaign. He is raining sops and promises at his public meetings. As expected he is also trying to get the much-delayed unfinished development projects expeditiously completed. Whether this can be accomplished in the short pre-poll period is a big question mark.

But through some of his utterances like the one in Manpreet’s Gidderbaha constituency Sukhbir is scoring self-goals. Addressing a public rally-cum-sangat darshan at Kot Bhai village of the constituency he admitted that false cases were registered against innocent persons and that police and government machinery was misused to harass them as part of political vendetta. He conveniently forgot that as the Home Minister he was solely responsible for such excesses committed allegedly at the behest of his estranged cousin Manpreet. Who said rulers blood is thicker than governance norms?

Sukhbir’s admission of false cases registered and vendetta politics pursued in Gidderbaha lends credence to the Congress charge that during the Badal-led Akali-BJP rule thousands of false cases have been registered against Congressmen in Punjab and the ruling Akali leadership has been resorting to vendetta politics.

Sukhbir’s second damage control measure is to win back the disgruntled Akali workers who feeling ignored revolted against the party. In some cases the district level leaders were annoyed with the style of functioning of Sukhbir’s brother-in-law former minister and MLA Bikramjit Singh Majithia. Majithia is now in charge of the Youth Akali Dal. Reports from the districts say that it is due to these factors that some of the estranged party leaders have negatively responded to Sukhbir’s appeasement attempts.

These developments need to be seen in the light of the changed organizational state of the Akali Dal and Congress.

There are no ostensible dissensions in the top Akali leadership. This is primarily due to Parkash Singh Badal’s domineering status, his amiable nature and consensus approach to problems and his being the party’s main vote catcher. But factional squabbles and personal clashes are rampant in some of the Akali Dal’s lower units

Besides the above factors, the hope of better political prospects is prompting the disgruntled Akali leaders to join the Manpreet camp.

The state of Congress’ organizational health is in sharp contrast to that of the Akali Dal. The top state Congress leadership is faction ridden with MP Pratap Singh Bajwa raising a banner of revolt against the newly appointed PCC President Capt. Amarinder Singh while some of Capt.’s other detractors are currently lying low.

Although factional fights in the party’s lower units continue, their frequency and intensity have declined. Two other factors are, however, helping in boosting the morale of the party ranks. One is Capt. Amarinder Singh’s image of being a fearless and non-comprising fighter against the Akali Dal. The other is the change in his past functioning style which was of a not an easily accessible leader. It is reported that now he is attending social functions in the families of party men and other public figures. Whether he has distanced himself from the coterie which contributed to his unpopularity during his 2002-2007 chief ministership will be known only if the Congress comes to power after the 2012 Assembly elections.

Although the organizational health of the Akali Dal and the Congress, the two mainstream parties will influence the outcome of the Assembly elections, it will be Punjab’s deplorable fiscal and governance health which will play a decisive role in deciding who will rule Punjab after the 2012 elections. Unfortunately for the Akali leadership which like Haryana’s former Chief Minister and the Badal’s family friend Om Parkash Chautala, claims will rule Punjab for the next twenty five years, the factors like the disgruntled party activists rallying round Manpreet and the deplorable state of Punjab’s economy and governance, may prove to be a dampener for Sukhbir’s ambitions.

It is said Punjab is not a bad state, but it’s in a bad state! (IPA Service)