Two questions will play an important role in determining Punjab’s political scene in 2011. One, Will the Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal’s son Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh take over as Chief Minister in the new year?. Two, what is likely to be the shape of political equations? These equations will play an important role in deciding the outcome of the polls which will witness a tough fight between the ruling Akali-BJP alliance and the rejuvenated Congress.

Political observers had expected Sukhbir’s elevation as the Chief Minister in 2010. But it did not happen. Parkash Singh Badal says that it is for the Akali Dal to decide the issue. But the reality is that Badal himself is the sole decision-making authority in Akali Dal, SGPC and the ministry. Saying that it will be the party which will decide about Sukhbir’s elevation is an effort to convince the gullible that decision making processes in Akali Dal are democratic.

It is probable that Sukhbir’s ascendancy to Chief Ministership may take place only after the ensuing Assembly elections. Parkash Singh Badal may perhaps first want his son to gain more experience in governance politics. Sukhbir’s record of autocratic and anti-democratic functioning has sullied the government’s image besides alienating some sections of the people. There is also an apprehension that his elevation may lead to more revolts in the Akali Dal which will further strengthen Manpreet. Manpreet’s on-going “Jago Punjab Yatra” has already evoked good response in Akali Dal’s traditional stronghold and Badals home turf of Malwa.

The en masse support given by the influential Dera Sacha Sauda to the Congress in the last Assembly elections had routed out Akali Dal from its traditional stronghold of Malwa region giving the Congress a magnificent victory. Although the Akali Dal substantially recovered its ground in Lok Sabha elections due to the selective support extended by Dera followers to its candidates, the party’s electoral prospects will be hit if Manpreet gains more ground in the region. This fear has forced the father-son duo to start efforts to appease the grassroots level rebel party men. Parkash Singh Badal also met his younger brother and Manpreet’s father Gurdas Badal in their village ancestral house presumably to mend fences with his estranged family members. But apparently the meeting did not yield any fruitful outcome.

In the run-up to the elections, there are bound to be political realignments in Punjab. As the things stand today, there is no possibility of Manpreet returning to the Akali Dal’s fold. PCC President Capt Amarinder Singh says that Manpreet will not be admitted in the party. Manpreet has declared that after completing his Yatra, he might float a party.

There used to be off-and-on electoral ties between the Congress and the Left. These were later snapped. Whether the two would again join hands for 2012 poll will depend on how they perceive their own electoral prospects. Parkash Singh Badal has said his party may not be averse to shake hands with the BJP.

As regards Haryana, besides the issues of governance, two events will play an important role in shaping Haryana’s 2011political scenario. The first is the future of the five of the six Bhajan Lal-led Haryana Janhit Congress MLAs who are facing disqualification charge under the Anti-Defection Law. The second is political realignments.

Immediately after the 2009 mid-term polls outcome, the five JHC MLAs had joined the Congress giving the party its own majority in the Assembly. The Congress had won only 40 seats in the 90-member House. Even if the five MLAs get disqualified, the stability of the Hooda government is not likely to be endangered. The situation may change only if the seven Independents with whose support the Congress was able to form its ministry withdraw their support. But as the things stand, there is no likelihood of their withdrawing their support. They occupy ministerial chairs.

In his representation to Assembly Speaker Harmohinder Singh Chatha, the JHC chief Kuldip Bishnoi had sought disqualification of the five MLAs under Anti-Defection Act. The delay in the Speaker’s decision prompted Bishnoi to move the Punjab and High Court which has now asked Chatha to decide the issue within four months.

The High Court’s direction to the Speaker is likely to revive the controversy about the jurisdiction and powers of the two constitutional bodies. In the past, the issue of courts interference in Legislatures functioning had also raised controversies. Whatever direction the five JHC MLAs disqualification issue takes, it is going to be a time consuming affair which may linger on even till the 2012 elections as an adverse verdict may prompt the MLAs to use numerous forums available for filing appeal.

The question whether the Congress may also think about an electoral understanding with any group will depend on its assessment about its electoral prospects when the elections approach. In the interim period its government will have to focus attention on governance issues including law and order, growing revenue deficit and improving the Administration’s service delivery mechanism to make it more efficient to speedily redress peoples grievances. Governance shortcomings fan anti-incumbency which affects a ruling party’s electoral prospects.

The governance issue reminds one what Bansi Lal used to say: “Bureaucracy is a mare which can take you safely across the river if you tightly hold the reins. It would drown you in the midst of the river if you loosely hold the reins”.

The foregoing exercise indicates that Punjab will witness a charged-up political scenario in 2011. In Haryana the year may see the State’s mainstream parties leaderships intensifying their recriminatory accusations with Hooda and Chautala making each other main target of their attacks. Hooda, however, is expected to continue with his sops doling sprees. (IPA Service)