There is also no getting away from the fact that, as of now, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) enjoys a clear edge over its rival, the Left Democratic Front (LDF).

The Congress is exuding optimism, especially after the spectacular victory the UDF scored in the local bodies elections. The victory, coming as it does within a year of its magnificent win in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, has done a world of good to its confidence. Having tasted blood twice in two years, the Front is gearing up for the kill in the’ final’, the assembly election battle.

Not only the Congress, but also the other constituents of the UDF are also battle-ready. The Kerala Congress (Mani) has emerged stronger with the merger in it of the P J Joseph faction, which broke away from the LDF. The second most important constituent of the UDF, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) is also in better shape, having improved its position in the local bodies polls.

As if all this is not enough, the UDF has firmed up with the entry of the Socialist Janata (Democratic) headed by M P Veerendra Kumar. Veeran, as Mr Kumar is known among his supporters, had broken away from the LDF last year angered by the big brother attitude of the CPI(M). Adding further strength to the UDF, the Indian National League (INL) also severed its links with the LDF.

Within the Congress itself, Leader of the Opposition, Mr Oommen Chandy has emerged stronger after the election to the Youth Congress and the Kerala Students Union (KDU). Chandy’s candidates have become the chiefs of both the KSU and the Kerala unit of the YC. The rival Vishala group headed by KPCC chief Ramesh Chennithala is no match for the A group led by Mr Chandy.

The followers of late K. Karunakaran are also making a beeline to the Chandy camp, having realized which way the wind is blowing. Chandy’s growing influence is bad news for senior Congress leader and Union Minister Vayalar Ravi, who has expressed his readiness to fight for the Chief Minister’s post. Ravi, who has little influence in the KPCC, won’t be able to realise his dream of becoming the CM unless the Congress high command wills otherwise. Such a denouement is unlikely with Mr. Oommen Chandy proving his strength time ands again. The high command would find it difficult to deny him the coveted post especially after the spectacular show his group put up both in the KSU and YC elections.

As for the LDF, the Front in general and the CPI(M) in particular is engaged in a do-or-die battle to recover lost ground and reverse the adverse electoral trend. The LDF has taken a few steps aimed at stemming the decline and winning over sections alienated by its style of functioning. The party is making a determined effort to regain the trust of the Muslims which it had lost because of its arrogance and indifference to the sensibilities of the minorities. The CPI(M) is attempting to ensure the formation of a party comprising a section of the INL(Secular) , a breakaway faction of the IUML and a Christian faction. Indications are that the party may come into being by the end of January, 2011. If the plan fructifies, it would go a long way to undo the damage inflicted by the Muslims alienation from the LDF.

The LDF would do well to implement the host of suggestions made by the new CPI secretary, Mr C K Chandrappan to tone up the LDF. Mr. Chandrappan had suggested , among other things, that the parties which had left the LDF should be brought back and that steps to gain acceptance of the middle class should be taken besides initiating a dialogue with the church to build bridges with Christians alienated by the LDF’s acts of omission and commission.

Chief Minister V S Achuthanandan has done well by seeking a CBI inquiry into the lottery scam which has created a bad name for the LDF Government. By writing to both the Union Home Minister and subsequently to the Prime Minister himself seeking a CBI probe, VS has, in a way, taken the wind out of the Congress’s propaganda sail on the issue. He has also directed that cases be registered against lottery king Santiago Martin and one or two others. The measures have gone down well with the middle class. The LDF should take more such middle class-friendly measures, which would stand it in good stead in the elections.

After all , all that is needed is a two to three percent swing in the votes, the difference between the two fronts being only 7 lakh votes.

It is learnt that the CPI(M) has also decided to give special attention to 35 constituencies where the UDF lead is less than 5,000. The LDF had a clear lead in 40 constituencies in the local bodies elections. If it can manage to bag another 35 seats, the Front can retain power. That is the calculation. (IPA)