The TMC is yet to conclude a seat adjustment or alliance with the Congress and its smaller allies. The CPI-M has not yet completed seat sharing arrangements with the RSP, the CPI or the Forward Bloc. And yet, the TMC and the CPI-M have both been busy assessing the pre-poll situation, weighing their chances.

The TMC has just had a pre-poll survey done by a professional organisation. Its findings have been carefully leaked. The TMC is very happy with the outcome of the survey. Researchers who went to work intensively in every district, report that on its own the TMC should win between 160/170 seats. It is not really dependant on any alliance with the Congress or any other party.

However, if it does work out the long awaited alliance or adjustment with the older party, already the subject of much mutual bickering and choice insults, its tally might well exceed 200. This calculation should send shivers down the spine of Leftists in West Bengal. In case the TMC wins over 200 seats in a house of 294, the Congress should win at least 40/50 of the remaining seats, if an alliance is formed. That should virtually wipe out the Left Front from the state including its most important constituent, the CPI-M. Since the publication of the item, there has been no clarification or contradiction from the TMC, which invests it with a certain credibility.

It is not as though the ruling Left has been idle. The CPI-M is also reported to have sounded out poll researchers about the prospects in the coming election. Party leaders are not saying much, but insiders say the findings have not been very positive, as of now.

However, one encouraging sign is that the situation has been improving for the Left in recent weeks. The ruling front has got over the initial trauma over the Singur and Nandigram setbacks, which cost it so dearly in electoral terms in several elections.

But of late, the CPI-M’s slogan “Ghure Daran (roughly, fight back) “, backed by a series of rallies meetings and demonstrations, have revived a section of the cadres. Unlike before, the TMC is not being given much political space.

Over the next 45 days, the left parties have planned a major pre-election campaign where apart from highlighting the positive achievements of the administration, the slew of new measures now being implemented for the upliftment of the minorities, the tribals and the rural poor, will be in focus. This is part of the Left campaign to reach out to the sections which had turned against it during the Lok Sabha and the civic polls.

As CPI-M leaders say, the response to this initiative has been positive, both in terms of the larger gatherings at such meetings than before and more active public participation in some areas. “Especially in South and North 24 Parganas, where the TMC runs a number of panchayats, mismanagement and corruption have taken their toll among people with high expectations. They are now coming over to us, some of them had left us in anger earlier,” says a Left TU leader.

The TMC’s running battle of invectives and barbs against the Congress continues. Post Singur and Nandigram, there are not burning issues. Thanks to an aggressive counter campaign by State Housing Minister Mr. Gautam Deb, the TMC’s efforts to work up public anger against the spanking new Rajarhat township have ended in a damp squib.

As a CPI-M leader explains, ”People are increasingly fed up of the publicity gimmicks of TMC leader Mamata Banerjee, whose highly advertised launch of so-called new trains has been overworked to death. Not a single of her proposed 6/7 new rail factories is taking shape, as land acquisition has become a problem. She is being paid back in her own coin. The so-called civil society’s support for the TMC and the Maoists has not gone down well among common people, who are fed up of Naxalite violence. Not a single new project has seen the light of day. Instead of laying down at least 500 kilometres of new tracks during the first six months of her new tenure as railway Minister, there has been work only on 50-od kilometers! TMC-led panchayats in South 24 Parganas and East Midnapore are among the worst performers in the state when it comes to implementing welfare programmes. As for Singur, where the proposed Tata Nano car factory could not come up, the area has become an industrial desert and no TMC leader dares to organize a single rally, or even visit, there. Gradually people are understanding the emptiness of the TMC’s slogans and programmes.” Left leaders and cadres have been highlighting these and other failures of the TMC’s functioning at every meeting and rally relentlessly. Here the organizational clout of the Left, however depleted, still makes a difference. In comparison, the TMC programmes are one women-centred and spasmodic.

Left leaders may be overstating things, because there is no evidence to suggest either that the TMC is losing its hard-earned support or that common people are suddenly rediscovering their faith in the Left. During the preliminary seat sharing talks between the CPI-M and the RSP, there was no indication that mutual adjustments would be easy. “Because some people are disillusioned with the ways of the TMC, there is no reason to think that people in far greater numbers have forgotten the abysmal performance of the state government in most areas of governance over the last 33 years — be it in health, law and order, education, employment, industries or agriculture,” says a senior scribe. (IPA Service)