It is a positive sign that Rajakowa has announced that ULFA would come to the table without any “pre conditions” after his release. Now the ULFA will have to discuss the modalities within its General Council and come with a proper list of demands. The government is not averse to even lifting the ban on the organization. The Government has made it clear that except sovereignty all other issues could be discussed within the framework of the Indian constitution. The government has no other formula so far. Former Intelligence Bureau chief P.C. Haldar, who has been appointed as the interlocutor, is said to be comfortable with the negotiations.

Why peace talks at this point of time? First of all, the Assam chief minister Tarun Gogoi claims that the atmosphere is conducive now. Secondly the ULFA leaders are getting older and their families are putting pressure on them to give up violence. Thirdly, the ULFA itself has become weaker over the years and has influence only in a few pockets in the state. Gone are the days when the people feared the insurgents. Fourthly, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who is a member of Rajya Sabha from Assam, has also shown interest in finding a solution. The state government had been in constant touch with the ULFA leaders including its founder members like Rajakowa and Pradip Gogoi, housed in the Guwahati central jail for the past one year or so. Fifthly neighboring countries ike Bhutan, Bangladesh and Myanmar have helped India in hounding out these insurgents. Sixthly and most importantly, the Congress party is keen on peace talks as the Assembly polls are scheduled for April. They want to initiate the talks before the polls.

The ULFA movement began on April 7, 1979 at Ranghar and slowly got enmeshed with the student movement of the AASU. Even when AGP, the political wing of the AASU won the state in 1985, ULFA continued its armed struggle. ULFA had terrorized Assam for over three decades and had set impossible conditions for peace talks. It was banned in November 1990 under the Unlawful Activities (prevention) Act. Over the years many of its top leaders escaped to the neighboring countries and were operating from there. Its commander in chief Paresh Barua still eludes the Indian law while other top leaders had been arrested and now released on bail.

Stakes are high for the ruling congress at the centre and the state. If Chief Minister Gogoi is able to win back the state for the third time in succession, it will be a feather in his cap. Odds are against him, as he will be fighting on a weak wicket with ten years of baggage. However, the clever chief minister has announced several populist schemes like cheap rice, free cycles, computers to students and other sops with an eye on the polls. His only hope is to come back on the development plank. The Congress is also depending on the division of opposition votes. The AGP has become weak, the BJP is not so well entrenched, the Muslim front cannot win on its own and therefore, the Congress is pinning its hopes on this factor. While the Congress plans to go it alone, it is not averse to some understanding with some of these regional and smaller parties and a possible post poll tie up.

In such a situation, time is of essence to Tarun Gogoi. With barely a few weeks to go before the polls, the challenge is to get all the players to the negotiating table soonest. The release of six top leaders from jail on bail has already set the right atmosphere but two more are to be released. More over, despite his assurance of safe passage, Paresh Barua is still threatening to revive the ULFA movement from the Myanmar-China border from where he is currently operating.

But Assam today is not in a mood to support his ‘‘sovereign Assam’’ slogan. At the same time, he cannot be ignored when the target is a negotiated settlement. The government has decided to keep a window open but go ahead with talks with or without Paresh Barua. Efforts are on to extradite another senior ULFA leader Anup Chethia from Bangladesh as he had sent feelers about joining the peace process.

This is also a challenge for Rajakowa. While some ULFA leaders are yet to be brought on board, the biggest challenge for Rajakowa is to hammer out an acceptable list of demands for negotiations. Will he be able to persuade others to give up arms and join the main stream?

Making a success of peace talks depends on both sides, as the issue is multi-dimensional. Addressing the socio economic issues, participation of the diverse stakeholders in the talks including the intellectuals is necessary. It will be successful if both sides believe in a give and take attitude and a sense of compromise for lasing peace. The present generation of Assamese youth understands development and not violence as they had grown up in a troubled atmosphere. Last but not least, the government should ensure that there are no issues that will ultimately lead to a deadlock.

The state and the centre should not miss this opportunity of drawing the ULFA activists into a successful peace talks. ULFA too should not miss this chance of becoming relevant. It all depends on the seriousness on the part of the Centre, State and the ULFA leaders. A political solution will go a long way for the future of Assam. (IPA Service)