The scene shifted to Delhi this week with the chief minister Karunanidhi and Congress President Sonia Gandhi holding discussions in a cordial atmosphere putting at rest whether the seven year-old alliance between the two will continue. While at their level only broad contours were discussed the nitty gritty is left to a committee to discuss the seats and other issues. One thing comes out loud and clear during this visit that the beleaguered chief minister is at the receiving end from both the Congress and the PMK who would like to weaken the DMK.

For the ruling DMK in Tamil Nadu these elections are going to be a do or die battle. First of all, if the party wins the polls it will be a hat trick, a rare one in the Tamil Nadu political history. Secondly, Karunanidhi himself will get elected for the record 12 th time and may become the chief minister for the sixth time, creating another record. Thirdly the results may have an impact on the stability of the centre, as DMK is part of the UPA coalition. Fourthly, the results will also have a bearing on Karunanidhi’s family fortunes where his sons and daughter are fighting for his legacy. Fifthly, if the DMK wins, it will weaken the AIADMK, which has been waiting in the wings for almost ten years to take over.

However, the problem for Karunanidhi is that this time the DMK victory will be tough unless he gets the arithmetic correct. These past few Assembly elections have proved that in a coalition era arithmetic matters more than chemistry. Perhaps realising this, both Karunanidhi and the AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa are wooing allies including the Congress and the PMK.

For Karunanidhi it is an uphill task at the fag end of his career to set right the family quarrels, unite the party, get over the impact of the 2 G scam and win the trust of the people once again. Coming up with populist slogans alone will not help him in these elections. Schemes like free TV to the voters may not click this time.

Secondly, time has come for the DMK to share power after the polls in the state. The Congress is upset that despite propping up the DMK, the Dravidian party has never shared power with its allies. The local Congressmen were upset after the 2006 Assembly polls that they were not made ministers. There is rumbling within the local Congress that this should be corrected and made a pre-condition for alliance.

Thirdly, the DMK chief has to deal with an assertive congress while seat sharing. The DMK is on a weak wicket in the state after the 2G scam and resignation of Communications minister A. Raja.

The DMK had contested in 2006 Assembly polls 132 seats and won 96 while Congress fielded in 48 seats and won 34. The PMK had contested 31 seats and won 18. The past two decades have shown in Tamil Nadu that the fight is between the two alliances led by the DMK and the AIADMK and whoever gets the magic combination, wins the polls.

As for the Congress, continuing the alliance with the DMK is important to run the UPA-2 at the centre. Some senior leaders are of the view whether they win or lose the government at the centre should not be disturbed. Secondly, a good showing will boost the image of the Congress at a time when the UPA is facing a series of scams. It will also revive Congress in the state after decades.

The Congress is in an upbeat mood and hopes to get a larger share of seats this time. It has pitched for not less than 75 seats citing its good striking rate in the previous elections while the DMK is not ready to give more than 60 seats. The PMK wants at least 40 seats. If Karunanidhi agrees for these demands then the DMK share would be less than half of the total Assembly seats of 234.

The DMK would like the PMK, VCK (Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi) and the Muslim League as part of the alliance. The PMK is yet to confirm its tie-up with the DMK though there have been indications that the two parties were getting back together after a two-year estrangement. They had jointly contested the previous assembly elections before splitting up in 2008 over anti-DMK remarks by a senior PMK leader, Kaduvetti J Guru.

Film actor turned politician Vijayakanth is yet to reveal his party MDMK’s electoral strategy for the assembly elections. Vijayakant’s criticism about the chief minister’s Delhi visit this week shows that he may not align with the DMK-Congress combine.

The AIADMK too is wooing Vijayakanth for his ten per cent vote share would boost any alliance. While his strident criticism of both the parties is a clear indication of Vijayakanth's stance, the actor is yet to announce a decision with regard to an electoral tie-up. The talk in political circles is that the MDMK is negotiating with the AIADMK for an alliance.

The Tamil Nadu political scene is still a little hazy but will become clear in the next few days, as all the players are serious about a fierce poll battle. They are hoping that the voter apathy and their disenchantment may not affect their chances this time.(IPA Service)