The main Opposition party, the AGP, is at a disadvantageous position vis-à-vis the Congress because of its none-too-bright record during its two stints in power. It has a past to live down. Whenever it seeks to corner the Congress – inside the Assembly or outside it — on the corruption issue, the Congress retaliates in kind – raking up old issues like the LOC scam in which the then Chief Minister Prafulla Mahanta had figured prominently. There are other major and minor corruption charges against it, like huge tracts of land acquired by Sarbamangalam, an organization set up by Mahanta’s wife during his days in power. The Congress also uses Mahanta’s much-publicized extra-marital relationship with a fair friend to embarrass him.

Then there is the much talked about “secret killings” in the second AGP tenure when the State police with the help of surrendered ULFA militants (known as SULFA) engaged in extra-judicial killings of ULFA actvists and their family members. One of the victims of secret killings was Dimba Rajkonwar, an employee of the Assam State Transport Corporation, who happened to be the brother of ULFA chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa. Organizationally also, the AGP is divided. It has three factions led by Mahanta, former Agriculture Minister Chandra Mohan Patwary and former Education Minister Brindaban Goswami. Incidentally, Patwary’s name figures in the multi-crore rupee “pumpset scam” as also in a palatial building he has bult in Guwahati.

Next to AGP comes the Assam United Democratic Front which has recently been renamed All India United Democratic Front or AIUDF. Though the Muslims constitute the main support base of the party, it is not a Muslim party but a secular one. Its membership is thrown open to all. It has ten members in the present Assembly, two of whom are non-Muslims. AIDUF supremo Maulana Badruddin Ajmal has good relationship with the Cognress leaders in Delhi but he is not known to be close to Chief Minister Gogoi.

Incidentally, AIUDF is the only Muslim dominated party which has taken a categorical and uncompromising stand against illegal migrants from Bangladesh, unlike the United Minorities Front which was formed in the nineteen eighties mainly to resist en masse eviction and deportation of Muslims who were being dubbed as “Bangladeshis”. Maulana Ajmal thinks that by taking a public stand against the illegal migrants, the party will be able to fight effectively for the rights of Bengali Muslims and Hindus in Assam who are genuine Indian citizens. The AIDUF will be a major player in the coming elections in areas dominated by religious and linguistic minorities – Bengali Hindus and Muslims. The support it gets from the minorities will be at the cost of the Congress.

Another important organization that has emerged in the Assam political scene is not yet a political party. It is the Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti (KMSS), led by Akhil Gogoi. It was founded at Golaghat in Upper Assam in 2002 mainly to fight for the rights of the local peasantry. But in less than a decade it has spread its organizational network throughout Assam and has a membership of seven lakhs. Akhil Gogoi says he believes in Marxism but his method is democratic and Gandhian.

At the moment the KMSS is leading an agitation for the stopping construction on “mega dams” in contiguous Arunachal Pradesh. The dams are meant for generating hydel power and extending irrigation facilities but has come in for sharp criticism by scientists and ecologists who think the dams will not only evict a large number of people but also permanently damage the ecology of the region. The dams will increase siltation in the already heavily silted Brahmaputra and lead to more widespread floods in the Brahmaputra Valley because more siltation means less water-bearing capacity of the river.

Eminent social activists like Medha Patkar and Mahasweta Devi have supported the agitation launched by the KMSS. Patkar has visited Guwahati several times to show her solidarity with the movement. Gogoi has not spelt out whom he and his KMSS will support in the coming elections. He may set up some of his associates as independent candidates and later prepare for launching his own party. Two newspapers and a TV channel have thrown their weight behind the KMSS.

The Left’s position does not seem to have improved since the 2006 polls when the CPI-M won two seats and the CPI only one. By contrast, the BJP seems to have gained in strength. It now has nine MLAs, most of whom are from the Bengali-dominated Barak Valley and three from tea-garden areas. It may marginally improve its tally. (IPA Service)