Stakes are high for the Congress in the forthcoming elections as it has direct fight with the left in two states and a fractured opposition in the other three states. The Congress strategists are working overtime to make sure that there are no slip between the cup and the lip.

If the Congress manages to get even three states out of the five, it will be a big morale booster for the party, which is demoralised after one scam after the other and a belligerent opposition taking on the government in Parliament. What better way than to win big to make the opposition shut up?

If you look at the big picture, out of the five states, in West Bengal where the Congress is a minor partner riding piggy back on Trinamool Congress, the combination is in an advantageous position as the people are in a mood for change. The Left Front coalition, which has been ruling the state for more than three decades continuously, is sliding down in its popularity with the result the Congress-TMC is on the upswing as of now. Even if there is some bargain on the seat sharing between the two parties, both are in a mood to compromise to capture the Writer’s Building.

In Kerala, the ruling CPI-M is bogged down with its internal quarrels. The chief minister and the state CPI-M chief are on a collision course for the past five years, which has reached its crescendo. Moreover, Kerala is known for favoring the Left Democratic Front and the United Democratic Front in alternative elections. This is the turn of the Congress led UDF and so the Congress is quite upbeat about a favorable verdict.

Assam is a Congress ruled state and the party is hoping for a hat-trick if it wins the state for a third time in a row. The Congress managers are hopeful of this feat on two counts. The first is that the ULFA leaders have come to Delhi for unconditional peace talks. Although no real talks can take place until after the elections, the line adopted by the ULFA leaders seems to be encouraging. The second is that the opposition in the state is divided. The AGP is on the decline and the BJP is also not on the rise. There is no electoral alliance between the AGP and the BJP. While some in the Congress want some understanding with the Muslim Front in the state, chief minister Tarun Gogoi is opposing it. Despite that, arithmetic seems to be good for a Congress victory. The Congress is even hopeful of improving its position in Assam.

Puducherry, which is a shadow of Tamil Nadu, is currently a Congress-ruled state. The basic confusion about the alliance is now over with the Congress, the DMK and the PMK coming together, the chances of Congress coming back to power have become much better.

It is Tamil Nadu, which has become the real problem for the Congress now. Even though the alliance has been firmed up with the DMK, PMK, Vidudalai Chiruththai and other smaller parties, the Congress strategists are not sure which way the elections will go. The PMK has been given 31 seats while the seat sharing between the Congress and the DMK is still to be concluded. The Congress would like to settle for at lest sixty five to seventy seats while the DMK would like to retain at least 120 seats. The other smaller parties have to be given a few seats each. This difficult arithmetic is being worked out in a hard bargain. The AIADMK led by Jayalalithaa has already tied up with the CPI, CPI-M, MDMK and other smaller parties. It is almost on the verge of concluding talks with the actor turned politician Vijayakant’s party DMDK. If this happens, the arithmetic will be almost even and the fight will be advantage Jayalalithaa. The Congress being a minor partner has left it to the DMK to come out of the negative campaign against it due to the 2 G scam and the arrest of A. Raja. The election strategy is left to the wily DMK chief M. Karunanidhi while the Congress is also planning how to improve its position

The bottom line for the Congress is that while it would like its major partners like the Trinamool and the DMK win the elections, it would not like them to become too strong. How it will achieve this task is what is puzzling the Congress strategists.

Secondly, the Congress is looking for power sharing in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. The DMK chief Karunanidhi had resisted this so far and did not include the Congress MLAs as his ministers after the 2006 polls but this time even the high command is keen on power sharing. TMC may agree for this formula, as it is untested so far. (IPA Service)