For instance, one of these relates to the Government of India’s decision to scale down the stringent security measures in some of the state’s urban areas, particularly in Srinagar. Because of the improved security environment the urbanites had started viewing the excessive visibility of the security forces as overbearing. Among the measures to scale down the security level are removal of police pickets and bunkers from some areas in Srinagar and the move to withdraw the Armed Forces (Special Powers Act) from the state’s militancy-freed areas by delisting them as disturbed areas. Another significant decision is the proposed pulling out of another ten battalions (10,000 men) from the state. Ten battalions were pulled out last year.

These decisions are obviously intended to create a congenial atmosphere for finding a political solution of the Kashmir problem. Scaling down of the security measures in the Kashmir Valley was being demanded by most of the state’s mainstream parties including the National Conference and the main opposition party PDP. The separatists had also included the demand as one of their pre-conditions without acceptance of which, they said, there could be no solution of the Kashmir problem.

The security-related decisions also assume importance in the light of the centrally-appointed interlocutors stress “on undertaking serious and urgent efforts to reduce the trust deficit between the rulers and the ruled.” The three-member interlocutors team headed by journalist Dileep Padgaonkar will submit its initial report on a possible solution to the Kashmir issue in March. While asking the Centre to make these efforts the interlocutors are convinced that any solution to the problem cannot compromise with the unity and territorial integrity or the special status of the state.

Such security-related steps, particularly in the light of the peoples getting disillusioned by the militants frequent shutdown calls and killing of innocent Kashmiris will, no doubt, have a positive impact on the ongoing efforts to find a political situation. But there are fears among some sections of the people that taking advantage of the curtailed security measures terrorists could revive their violent actions during the approaching summer. It is during summers that infiltrations of the armed groups increase resulting in escalation of violence.

Commenting on the situation in Jammu and Kashmir even Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had told the Lok Sabha on February 24 that the government was keeping its “fingers crossed” this summer while remaining vigilant. Although the Prime Minister asserted that no quarter should be given to secessionists what prompted him to make these comments was the last summer’s abnormal situation in the Valley created by the stone-pelting rowdies and the resultant killing of over 100 men in police actions. In the proposed March 28-29 meeting of the India and Pakistan Home Secretaries, New Delhi plans to confront Pakistan with hard evidence of Pakistani official agencies involvement in the violent protests in the Valley.

Although the possibility of the scaled down security measures encouraging the terrorists to step up violence in the Valley cannot be ruled out, there seems to be relatively lesser chance of Pakistan increasing the level of its support to the terrorists. Three factors are behind the optimism.

One: The country’s deteriorating internal situation has pushed Pakistan on the verge of becoming a failed state. Its economy is in shambles. High inflation and growing shortages of some essential commodities are causing unrest among the people. The country is facing political uncertainty. Corruption is rampant in the ruling party’s top echelons prompting Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani to drop some of his corrupt ministers in recent cabinet reshuffle. That religious extremism and fanaticism are acquiring dangerous dimensions is indicated by Punjab Governor Salman Taseer’s assassination by his own police guard Mumtaz Qadri simply for demanding amendment of the anti-blasphemy law. Hordes of country’s lawyers who had played a significant role in defending Supreme Court’s Chief Justice after his removal by Pervez Musharraf are now vying with each other to defend Qadri.

Two: The terrorists, Pakistani rulers own creation, have become Frankenstein to destroy the country’s political, social and administrative fabric through their violent actions. The elements of the Pakistani Army who had earlier been backing Kashmiri terrorists may now find it difficult to continue their support to them because of the country’s own deteriorated security environment..

Three: Pakistani rulers have, in the past, always tried to divert the peoples’ attention from the country’s internal problems by raising the temperature on Kashmir. But since the country itself is now plagued with escalated terrorist violence and there is tremendous international pressure on Pakistani rulers for countering terror, there are lesser chances of their helping the Kashmiri secessionists. They may also not get the same level of support from Kashmiris as in the past because of the latter’s growing disillusionment with the Pakistani-backed secessionists frequent shutdown calls which have ruined the peoples’ livelihood sources.

Despite these encouraging signs, New Delhi cannot afford to be complacent. It will have to draw contingency plans for quickly redeploying the security forces to counter any escalation of terrorist violence in the state during the ensuing summer. Besides, it will also have to take a strong stand on Kashmir during the soon-to-be-resumed talks with Pakistani representatives.(IPA Service)