In fact, the Congress exudes calm self-confidence after the attack. Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi said the Congress would in no way be intimidated by such activity; ULFA had killed Congress workers earlier also. Gogoi is confident he will make a hat-trick by winning the 2011 polls for the Congress for the third time in a row.

Congress has released a list of 118 candidates out of the total 126 seats. Of the remaining eight seats, one is Gohpur in Darrang district. There is reportedly some difference of opinion between PCC chief Bhubaneswar Kalita and chief minister Tarun Gogoi on the proposed party candidate who has been charge-sheeted by the CBI in a bribery case. There are two other interesting replacements. Congress heavyweight and former Union Minister Santosh Mohan Deb’s wife Bithika has been replaced by their daughter Sushmita in Silchar constituency of Barak Valley.

Similarly, former Chief Minister Hiteswar Saikia’s widow Hemoprova has yielded her home seat Nazira to son Debabrata. This seat is currently held by Drupad Borgohain of the CPI who happens to be the lone Left member in the House now. The initial choice of the party fell on Mrs Saikia because Debabrata has a CBI case pending against him. But the Central Election Committee of the party cleared his name and overruled the objection of the State leadership.

On the Opposition, there are three main parties: the AGP, the BJP and the All India United Democratic Front (AIDUF). If wishes were horses, these three parties coming together will have ousted the Congress from power. At least that is the simple arithmetic of AGP president Chandra Mohan Patowary. Says he, the Congress won 58 seats in 2006 by polling just 29 per cent votes. If a division of the remaining 71 per cent votes is avoided, the Opposition can easily defeat the Congress and come to power.

But politics or realpolitik is not mere arithmetic. The AIDUF is a secular party whose influence is limited by and large to Muslims. AIDUF president Badruddin Ajmal, a member of the Lok Sabha, says he will have no truck with the BJP which is a communal party. But he is not averse to having a poll alliance with the AGP. But his strong message to the Muslim voter is a simple one-liner: oust Congress. He has reasons to be bitter about the Congress. In the biennial elections to the Rajya Sabha from Assam in March, 2010, the Congress could win one seat and the Opposition one, if they voted unitedly. In the event, Congress won both the seats, because there were as many as eight defections from the Opposition: four from the BJP, two from the AIDUF and one each from the ASDC and AGP. The much talked about “Opposition unity” has not become any better since then.

The relations between the AGP and the BJP are not very warm either. The reason is obvious. Essentially, both the parties bank on the same social base, the Assamese-speaking Hindus. So, one can grow only at the cost of the other. An accretion of strength for the AGP means an erosion of strength for the BJP and vice versa. Now the BJP is distinctly cool to the idea of a poll alliance with the AGP. The State BJP president Ranjit Dutta points out that in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections the two parties had an alliance but it was the AGP which unilaterally terminated the alliance last September.

Naturally, the Congress is living in cosy comfort and does not feel threatened at all. Its alliance with the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), which has eleven members in the House, has stood the Congress in good stead. The two parties together have 69 legislators – six more than the magic figure of 63 in a House of 126.

Allegations of corruption will not cut much ice with the electorate. Both sides can hurl charges and accusations freely against each other and both sides will be true. If the AGP harps on the Rs. 1000 crore misappropriation of funds from the North Cachar Hills Autonomous District Council to embarrass the Congress, the latter will rake up the famous (or infamous) LoC scandal by the then ruling party, the AGP, and its alleged bribing of a Governor for putting a lid on the scandal. The Congress can also remind the people of the so-called “secret killings” of the close relations of ULFA leaders by the police with the help of the surrendered ULFA (or SULFA) men, under the benign dispensation of the Prafulla Mahanta Government.

The people have taken it for granted that a ruling party will indulge in corruption and make money. What will count with them is who has given better governance. (IPA Service)