Said a Student Federation of India (SFI) leader to the present writer,” The alliance will help us more than people realise. There are many discontents in both the TMC and the Congress and we anticipate a number of “independents” to file their nominations in different areas.” He was referring to the familiar tendency among non-left dissidents in Bengal and elsewhere to defy their leadership when they felt that justice had not been done in nominating candidates.

At a higher level, Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee had already indicated the CPI(M)”s thinking. “Let there be an alliance between the Congress and the TMC, we do not mind. We look forward to defeat both Congress parties,” subtly reminding his audience that the TMC had been formed out of the Congress, at a public rally in his Jadavpur constituency.

Observers feel that the [pre-poll outlook for the ruling Front has certainly become grimmer. The longer discussion (wrangling?) between the TMC and the Congress continued over the number of seats to be contested, left leaders hoped against hope that at the last moment, something would put a spanner in the works. Maybe Ms Mamata Banerjee would prove too impetuous, maybe Mrs Sonia Gandhi would put her foot down….. This had always been the story in the past.

Even at the last major elections, to elect new councilors for the Corporation of Kolkata, the TMC and the Congress had gone separate ways. The Congress ended up losing half of their seats, while the TMC formed the board on its own. But the split in non left votes did help the Left Front in winning several seats it could not have won otherwise.

The writing was on the wall for the Congress. The force was with the TMC and the smaller party naturally seized the initiative, not least because it was very much a single state-centered party, unlike the Congress. And from the 2009 Lok Sabha polls to the Panchayats, the by-elections and the civic elections, there was now no doubt as to which was the party people regarded as most likely to defeat the LF. It was the TMC all the way.

Regardless of state Congress hardliners like Manas Bhuyan, State President or MPs Adhir Choudhury and Deepa Das Munshi, the Congress high command was realistic enough to appreciate that to defeat the LF, the TMC was the undisputed front runner in West Bengal.

A defiant Choudhury indicated that he would defy the party’s leadership and not allow the TMC to contest 4 seats in Murshidabad, a Congress stronghold. The problem is Choudhury once dominated the district politics, but of late, there have been erosions in the support of his followers. Party leaders have yet to react to his threat to rebel.

As alliance terms were set mostly according to the TMC’s demands, analysts immediately began to sum up the prospects for the rival formations led by the CPI(M) and the TMC.

The most striking ‘Statistical poll analysis’ by one channel attracted much attention. Its analyst claimed to have factored in several elements in making his prediction : the possibility of a “split” vote and the “transfer” of votes from the Congress to the TMC and vice versa, the overall loss of 8% in left votes in polls held since 2009, the trend of voting in recent elections, etc.

His conclusion : The alliance should end up winning at least 225 out of 294 seats, while the LF could win at most 61 seats, with 8 seats going to the SUC and other parties.

The bulk of Left seats , according to this analysis, would come from Central and North Bengal districts, while in the South, except for West Midnapore (19 seats),, Bankura (12 seats) and Burdwan (25 seats), the LF would face a virtual washout in other districts. In these districts, the LF could win 11 in West Midnapore and 13 in Burdwan. At Bankura, it could win 8 out of 12.

But the Left could well draw a blank in Nadia (17), only 2 in Howrah (16), and 3 in Hooghly (18), none in Kolkata (11), the survey says.

Till date, no other survey has indicated such a trend so categorically. According to surveys conducted by the LF leaders, it is understood that the left is expected to win between 120 and 140 seats, but even here, an election victory has not been predicted. (IPA)