Bitter fighting over seat-sharing has preceded in both camps before announcement of the candidates which may have its own fall-out on outcome, but the forthcoming trial of strength would have serious implications for the national political landscape, with the Congress-led UPA-II at the Centre already in a survival mode. The stakes are thus higher for the Congress, fielding 63 candidates and hoping to share power with DMK, after citing “coalition compulsions” for failure of governance of UPA-II hit by a series of scandals.

Overhanging the electoral scene in Tamil Nadu is the 2G spectrum allocation scandal which led to the resignation and arrest of a DMK Minister and Mr Karunanidhi’s confidante, Mr A Raja followed by CBI raids on DMK media outfit, Kalaignar TV, to track the flow of illegal funds, and questioning for hours of members of Mr Karunanidhi’s household – one of his wives and daughter Ms. Kanimozhi, Rajya Sabha MP in the midst of the party’s poll preparations. How far this murky episode would influence voters, despite the widest awareness of how corruption has been perpetrated, will become clear only at the end of counting on May 13.

Indicative of the apprehensions on the part of DMK leadership is the fact that it has retreated from some of its traditional holds in metropolitan Chennai, making way for as many as five of the 14 constituencies for the Congress. Ms. Jayalalithaa has put her AIADMK candidates to fight for most of these seats. DMK relies on Congress, and the PMK of Dr Ramadoss, essentially centred on the Vanniar community, contesting for 30 seats, to ride back to power. But Tamil Nadu has become so notorious with its surfeit of crime and black money power in elections that extraordinary measures have been set in motion by revenue intelligence agencies, and large sums have been seized and confiscated over the last few weeks.

The Chief Election Commissioner Mr. S Y Quraishi, who has visited Chennai more than once, notes the flow of money is the biggest challenge, against the background of allegations of opposition parties of how the ruling party had taken all the eight seats in by elections over a period. The State ranks high in poll irregularities, sustained through money power, remarks former CEC Mr N Gopalswami, and it could be ended by the Election Commission only with the support of the people, he said.

The Election Commission has mobilized para-military forces to safeguard electronic voting machines (EVMs) and is trying to install closed circuit TVs in voting centres, especially for the 8,000 sensitive poll booths. It is strictly ensuring the observance of the code of conduct for parties and also had ordered transfer of some top police officers and several district collectors, based on “the feedback received from political parties and on our own assessment”.

How utterly dependent is Congress on regional parties for survival and bowing to the dictates of state-level leaders has been shown up the way it has aligned itself with DMK in Tamil Nadu, and with Trinamool Congress of an highly assertive Ms. Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal. Though it managed to get 63 seats in TN and 65 in West Bengal as part of the alliances, the outcome will be critical for the largest national party’s prospects in the next Lok Sabha elections in 2014. The State Congress leaders have no say on what kind of government should be in power in Tamil Nadu nor has it come up with any programme even after the filing of nominations had begun.

In Kerala which goes to poll on April 13 as in Tamil Nadu, the Congress expects the UDF it leads to move into power by sheer rotation the State is used to, but the ruling Left Front led by Chief Minister 86-year old V S Achuthanandan, with an incorruptible image, cannot yet be written off despite recent intra-party problems in CPI(M). Kerala’s 26 million voters have to elect its 140-member Assembly, the same day Tamil Nadu’s 46 million electorate would vote for the 234-member Assembly..

Mr Karunanidhi, whose DMK will field 121 candidates, has moved away from his Chennai stronghold since 1967 to file his nomination at the famed temple town, Tiruvarur, closer to his home in the Cauvery delta while Ms. Jayalalithaa has chosen relatively safer Srirangam, where Lord Ranganatha rests, a sandwiched town between Cauvery and Kollidam rivers. Her 160 AIADMK candidates are well spread to give a fight to DMK and its allies.

Major allies in the DMK-led front include Congress (63) and PMK (30) and an extreme pro-LTTE VCK (10).Three local parties share the remaining 10 seats. In AIADMK-led alliance, the major ally is Captain Vijaykant’s DMDK, whose charisma had earned a 10 per cent vote share in his debut in the 2009 Lok Sabha poll. DMDK, another determined opponent of Karunanidhi family rule, will fight in 41 constituencies while the CPI(M) and CPI are fielding 12 and 10 candidates respectively as part of Ms. Jayalalithaa’s alliance with 11 other seats shared by splinter groups. CPI(M) leader Mr Prakash Karat, kicking off the poll campaign, asked people to elect AIADMK combine to end “one family loot”.

Ms. Jayalalithaa had for long kept her allies, who stood with her in the last Lok Sabha elections, in suspense on seat-sharing till the latter half of March and virtually marginalized her long-time ally Mr Vaiko whose MDMK was allotted 35 seats in the 2006 assembly elections and offered this time no more than 8 seats. More than this, the abrupt AIADMK announcement of its 160 candidates and constituencies before finalising negotiations with allies caused resentment among them all. They threatened to form a third front under the leadership of Capt. Vijaykant. Ms. Jayalalithaa had to climb down, withdraw the list, and firm up the seat-sharing and constituencies with all allies but rejecting her offer of 8 seats, later raised to 12, Mr Vaiko’s MDMK walked out of the alliance and decided not to contest the elections. He is now being courted by Mr Karunanidhi.

In facing an ordeal, astute DMK supremo has gone further down the road of freebies to offer mixer/grinders to rural women, laptops to students belonging to backward classes in higher education, 35 kilos of rice free to some twenty lakh poor families, free bus pass for senior citizens, and doubling of loans to women self-help groups. Mr Karunanidhi, who distributed free colour TV sets to lakhs of people and gas stoves, as promised in his 2006 manifesto, apparently calculated that in the troubles encircling DMK, he should throw baits to cover as many sections of people as possible as the surest way to win. Metro rail and inter-city bullet trains are included in Mr Krunanidhi's manifesto.

No wonder his partymen trumpet it as a “killer” manifesto to put DMK safely back in power. For once, his two warring sons, M K Stain, Deputy Chief Minister and M K Alagiri, Union Minister of Fertilisers, took charge of seat distribution and both have decided to campaign against Ms. Jayalalithaa in Srirangam. Mr Karunanidhi has claimed that his government had always kept in mind 'development and resurgence' of the State and sought support for continued growth. DMK has also fielded 58 first-timers for a 'new look' but election authorities have sought information in the nominations of the antecedents and money power of all candidates.

Ms. Jayalalithaa had talked of building a 'dream alliance' months back but she had wavered in her approach possibly looking for a breakdown of Congress-DMK ties. Veteran analysts of Tamil Nadu political scene see public perception against the ruling dispensation for 'looting of public money', and for the rising prices, power shortages etc. Ms. Jayalalithaa, who has begun a 20-day campaign from Madurai before concluding in Chennai two days before the poll, will largely make her case based on 'family deals' for voting out DMK, apart from other 'failures' in administration. Supporting AIADMK are not only Captan Vijaykant who wants thorough CBI investigations into the 2G spectrum scam but also other matinee idols like Mr Sarat Kumar and Vijay who would be in the campaign trail aimed at ousting DMK regime. AIADMK supporter and noted political analyst Cho Ramaswamy, playing a pivotal role in building up the anti-DMK alliance, charges it with putting 'aggrandisement of family' above the interests of the State. (IPA)