This was the replay of the 2006 assembly polls when the party first denied Achuthanandan a ticket but was forced to do so after a similar revolt in the rank and file. The last five years saw uninterrupted internal fight between the two leading to a dent in the image of the party.

With the battle lines drawn clearly, it is evident that there are no big issues or any big wave in the Assembly polls. If at all, the mood in the state seems to be an anti-Left wave rather than a pro-UDF wave. Corruption is an issue but the Chief Minister’s personal image is seen as one fighting corruption. To that extent the CM has some advantage.

The Left seems to be weak in both its citadels – Kerala and West Bengal. If the Congress led UDF is poised to take over mainly depending on the anti-incumbency factor, the Trinamool Congress-Congress combine in West Bengal has an advantage in West Bengal. If the Left loses both the states, it will be left with only Tripura in its kitty.

Secondly, if one goes by the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress-led UDF seems to be in an advantageous position as Kerala was one of the key states which brought the UPA to power. The UDF went from an eight-point deficit to a three-point lead. One of the reasons is said to be the internal squabbles within the LDF. The other was the alliance with the People’s Democratic Party, which the LDF thought would bring in Muslim votes. The Lavalin case and the fight between the chief minister and Vijayan was also another reason. Added to that the Last year’s panchayat polls where the Congress literally swept many municipalities, gave an indication which way the polls could go. So the Congress begins the poll process with an advantage.

Analysis of the 2009 Lok Sabha polls shows that the UDF got the support of lower middle classes, middle income and high income groups while the LDF got support from low income and middle income groups. Caste wise, ezhavas and scheduled castes supported the LDF while Christians supported the Congress led UDF. The two fronts are expecting similar support in the ensuing assembly polls.

Thirdly, the restructuring of the assembly constituencies is yet another factor. Its impact will be one of the major factors for the poll prospects for both the LDF and the UDF.

While the Congress is confident of bagging the state, some congressmen feel that the Congress could have walked away with a hundred seats. However, there are some factors, which may mar the margin of victory. For instance, the scams facing the UPA at the centre, groups within the congress party, internal squabbles, and above all the spiraling price rise and inflation may reduce the margin they apprehend.

The Congress is not planning to project a chief ministerial candidate before the polls. The tie may however be between the former chief minister Oommen Chandy and the PCC president Ramesh Chennithala, who has a strong backing from the central leadership. Congress insiders say that the proper distribution of tickets may also be a big factor for the margin of victory, as internal sabotage should be avoided at all costs. The initial reaction from the rank and file after the ticket distribution is not very enthusiastic. The two groups led by Ramesh Chennithala and Ommen Chandy are fighting for their share, as it matters at the time of deciding the chief minister after the polls. Both the leaders are positioning themselves by cornering the maximum number of tickets for their supporters. This has resulted in some discontentment. Added to that is the sulking of Muralidharan, son of late Congress leader K. Karunakaran, who has come back to the party after a six year expulsion. The Congress is also struggling to accommodate the Catholic Church, which has a following in the state. By giving tickets to all the sitting MLAs, the Congress had managed to avert a crisis within the party.

The expectations are that it is advantage Congress and the LDF may have to be reconciled to its defeat unless there is a surprise. (IPA Service)