The red map has already shrunk and the results may show that it would shrink further. Apprehending such a situation, the comrades are already getting ready to face it.

The Left parties are ruling in only three states – Kerala, West Bengal and Tripura, of which Kerala and West Bengal are going for Assembly polls next month. In both the states the Left is finding it a Herculean task to come back to power. Even in West Bengal, where the Left has ruled uninterrupted for 34 years, there seems to be an anti – Left wave. If they lose both these, then the Left parties will be Left with tiny Tripura.

Already the 2009 Lok Sabha elections had showed the weakening of the Left from a strong 64 seats in the previous elections to a mere 24 in 2009. Even in states like Bihar, UP and Andhra Pradesh, where they have pockets of influence the results proved their weakness. This was a rude shock to the comrades. It has 23 seats in the Rajya Sabha but this too will shrink further because it is by the strength of the Left seats in the states that they got RS seats.

With no wave and issues except corruption, communalism and development, the Left parties are on the back foot. If there is any wave, it is the anti-Left and anti-CPI-M wave.

The pundits predict that the Trinamool-Congress combine will replace the 34 years of the uninterrupted Left rule this time. Even the comrades accept that there is an anti- Left wave in both Kerala and West Bengal. The CPI-M, which is leading the Left front, is not in a good shape and the anti incumbency is staring in its face for the first time in three decades. Together with this are the goonda elements, which have entered into the party. Above all, not much has taken place in the area of development. Controversies like the Singur and Nandigram had added to the bad image of the government. The pundits are only now debating about the margin of success for the combine.

As far as Kerala is concerned, it is a slightly different situation where the government is formed alternatively by the LDF and the UDF. To the disadvantage of the Left, it is the turn for the UDF to form the government this time so that they are caught in a Left stick. Moreover, the ground situation is also not very favorable to the Left. For the past five years there has been an uninterrupted quarrel between the chief minister Achuthanandan and the state party chief P. Vijayan with the result the CPI-M Politburo even suspended both. Apart from the chief minister, there is no charismatic leader in the state other than Vijayan who is involved in corruption cases.

What happens if the Left shrinks? If one looks at the big picture, the impact will be felt more in West Bengal as the party has no contingency plan. The problem is that there is a groundswell of anti-CPI-M sentiment, which covers the CPI-M workers at base level also. There is a possibility of the party organization facing desertions after defeat. The West Bengal leaders are old and many have health problems. It will be a gigantic task to rejuvenate the party to meet the challenge from Mamata at least in the coming two to three years.

In Kerala the impact may be little, as the party knows that it is the group rivalry, which is responsible for this.

At the central level, Prakash Karat will be under attack and the next central committee meeting will be stormy. CPI-M will further lose its national clout and struggle for running the party instead of playing any national role to unite the third front. The Left front partners also will be assertive and a weakened CPI-M has to be ready for giving them more concessions.

In a country where the government is moving towards the right; the Left parties continue to be relevant to a certain extent. First of all, they had been a balancing factor all through despite their small number. In a country where communalism is seen in its ugly face, the Left parties are seen as a savior for many secular parties and they look to the Left support.

Secondly, in the formation or the stability of the centre, Left had always played a role in a coalition situation be it in 1977, 1989, 1996 or 2004. V.P. Singh government was formed with the support of the Left and the right. The Congress in 2004 mainly depended on the Left support until they broke up on the Indo-US nuclear issue.

Thirdly, Left is also crucial for the formation of a third alternative or a third front, as it has taken lead to mobilize the non-Congress Non-BJP parties. The effort has been made a number of times but the third front has not clicked so far. Still, without the Left support, there could be no third alternative.

Fourthly, the Left parties act as a break to check crony capitalism and their presence is relevance as a break to the swing of the pendulum from Left to right.

While the Left may be down but they would not disappear altogether. Did not the BJP come back to rule in 1998 after its two seats in 1984? They may not disappear altogether.

However, they have to change according to the situation and try to transform their party to the present day needs.

Secondly, they should make sure that they remain closer to the people, which is not so at present. The Left parties know this and that is why they often look inwards to rectify these defects but much needs to be done. (IPA Service)