Two factors have lent extraordinary importance to Manpreet’s party. First, the PPP’s birth is like a whiff of fresh air in Punjab’s directionless and ideologically-starved politics. The PPP’s laudable declarations and objectives announced by Manpreet are akin to the political morality that marked the post-Independence initial years. The second factor is the massive and responsive gatherings at Manpreet’s rallies.

The laudable aims and objectives of the PPP announced by Manpreet while launching his party include: No one above 70 years will hold a ministerial position; Zero tolerance to corruption, to function purely on merit; Will steer clear from communalism and divisive agenda; Opposed to lavish lifestyles of politicians and bureaucrats at the cost of the exchequer; To focus on bailing the state out of financial bankruptcy; and, proper representation to women, youth and minorities at all levels.

Manpreet is opposed to the family rule and the domination by one individual. The target of his comment obviously is Chief Minister Badal and the Badal family which rules Punjab. Ironically Manpreet himself is the product of the family rule as it was for being Badal’s nephew that he was elected Akali MLA and became Finance Minister.

Badal has strongly come out against his nephew saying that Manpreet was jealous of his son Sukhbir’s rise as Deputy Chief Minister and Akali Dal President. “Sukhbir fought his way up the hierarchical ladder by mobilizing the party for winning 2007 Assembly and 2009 Lok Sabha elections through hard work while Manpreet got everything on a platter”, he said.

Chief Minister’s description of his nephew’s newly-formed party as a flock of opportunists, disgruntled and disappointed people is only partly true. But such elements which were sidelined by Sukhbir in his party and have joined Manpreet constitute only a microscopic minority of the rebel Akali leader’s followers. What about the sizeable number of intellectuals and educated middle class persons who are extending their support to him? And what about the massive gatherings at the breakaway Akali leader’s public rallies? In sharp contrast to the reputation of his political adversaries, it is Manpreet’s image of a clean, honest and well-intentioned politician that has generated such a big public support for him at the very start of his career as an opposition leader.

In fact, it is Akali leadership’s fear of Manpreet making a dent in the party’s support base, particularly in the Malwa region, and Capt. Amarinder Singh’s appointment as Punjab Congress President that has made the dominant Akali leadership jittery. It is in this background that the Chief Minister had to defer the elevation of Sukhbir as Chief Minister before the elections and had to himself take over the command.

These factors coupled with the prevailing anti-incumbency sentiment and the popular perception that most of the much-touted development in Punjab has taken place only on paper and in official pronouncements than on the ground which has triggered the process of political realignments. Not surprisingly the initiative for election-eve political alignments has come from Badal himself. The official press release about the Chief Minister’s speech at the function at Tohra village held on April 1 for paying homage to the late Akali leader G.S. Tohra opened with the sentence: ”Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal today announced that SAD would welcome any political party with sole aim to defeat Congress in the forthcoming Punjab Vidhan Sabha elections”.

But which are the political parties having a popular base that would be ready to have an electoral alliance with the ruling Akali-BJP combine? The Left parties have already declared that they were against both the Akali Dal and the Congress. Badal’s target is perhaps Bahujan Samaj Party which has some base in the state’s Doaba region. But the party is divided and does not command the influence it once used to.

On the other hand, the Congress which in the past often had electoral understanding with the Left parties (after the break-up between the UPA and the Left on India-US Nuclear agreement issue the Left fought the 2007 Assembly and 2009 Lok Sabha elections in Punjab independently but drew a blank) has declared that it would not have any alliance with the Left for the forthcoming Punjab Assembly elections.

The Left parties, though their base stands sharply eroded in Punjab, have expressed their readiness to have an alliance with Manpreet. They have described the PPP as a “secular, pro-people and nationalist party”. But Manpreet is non-committal on the issue. He has said he would take a decision on electoral alliance only after the party’s on-going membership enrolment drive is over and an organizational set-up is in place. It would take nearly four months.

Punjab’s foregoing political scenario indicates that the Akali Dal is in a defensive mode. Although the Congress is on the offensive, though the scams-hit UPA-II government’s tarnished image will overshadow its electoral prospects, the party hopes to benefit from the prevailing anti-incumbency sentiment and the infighting both in the Akali Dal and its ally the BJP.

Whether the above perceptions undergo a change largely depend on whether Manpreet’s PPP is able to expand its support base during the run-up to the February 2012 elections. In the intervening period, one will have to keep one’s fingers crossed about the future electoral alignments in Punjab and their possible implications for the polls outcome. (IPA Service)