In all, there are just 30 seats at risk and the Congress is up beat with its chances of coming back to power as the opposition is divided. In the 2006 Assembly polls, the Congress won 10 seats, the DMK 7. The present chief minister Vaidyalingam is being projected as the chief ministerial candidate.

There are two major problems for the Congress; the first is the emergence of NR Congress floated by the rebel Congress leader and former chief minister N. Rangaswamy. Distancing himself after he was removed as the chief minister in 2008, NR has floated his own outfit called NR Congress. This could pose a problem for the Congress - DMK combine. Rangaswamy, who has done good work with a clean image is said to have adequate clout and has an alliance with the AIADMK. He might be a spoiler for the Congress. The AIADMK would like to exploit the image of NR, as Rangaswamy is affectionately called. However, the question is whether NR can carry his personal image to an ultimate win. Will the voters trust an individual rather an ideology or a bigger political party? This is the key question that is being asked.

Secondly, while the DMK-Congress alliance looks good on the paper but it is not a very cohesive team. This lack of cohesion and the bad blood on account of bargaining for seats has left a bitter taste in their mouth.

Third, there are series of scams involving the DMK which may not go down well with the electorate. Since what happens in Tamil Nadu may be reflected in Puducherry, the effect of the scams is worrying the Congress and the DMK. Considering that the two main fronts are contesting in Puducherry also, it is certainly an issue in this tiny state as well.

Fourth, money power is worrying the other side although the Election Commission is cracking the wielding of money power in polls. At the same time, while money power could play a big role, it may not be a game changer.

Fifth, how much impact would the populist schemes announced by the major political parties win votes? The manifestoes of the Congress and the DMK offer freebees to the voters, to lure the voters. If the DMK has promised mixies and grinders, the Congress has promised mobile phones for the BPL families. Both the parties have announced several welfare schemes for all sections of people. The Congress has offered BPL families 35 kg free rice every month instead of 25 kg disbursed now. Similarly for APL families, 10 kg rice and 10 kg wheat would be disbursed at Rs 1 a kilo. Another lure is that the centre would be persuaded to increase the strength of the Assembly to 40 from the present 30. The AIADMK too is not lagging behind in populist schemes.

Congress is contesting polls in alliance with DMK and has fielded candidates in 17 of the 30 seats. The Congress is confident of winning back the state despite the anti incumbency and if that happens, it will be a morale booster for the party, as one more state would be added to the kitty.

Top leaders including the UPA chief Sonia Gandhi and the DMK patriarch M. Karunanidhi are personally campaigning in the tiny Union Territory to woo the voters. Insiders say that the threat posed by the NR Congress is decreasing because of various factors. First of all there is no cohesion in the new outfit. Secondly, the new party is unable to match the funds spent by other parties and the AIADMK is not helping it to the extent NR expected. So the NR’s loss could be the Congress party’s gain but if the voters opt for change then things will go awry for the Congress. (IPA Service)